A fair assumption can be made that Australia will play South Africa in one of the semi-finals. For the sake of this article, I’m going to assume that Australia win that game. No disrespect to South Africa, who are a formidable side, and could very well cause an upset. However, my brain and the form book are naturally inclined to assume Australia will make it into their fourth consecutive World Cup Final.

So if the side ranked as the ICC’s No.1 team leading up to the World Cup cannot defeat the Aussies, then who can? Well, if it’s going to happen it has to be either New Zealand or Sri Lanka. Australia look so ruthless that it seems as though, unless they have a really bad day at the office, they’re unbeatable.


So who can make this bad day at the office happen? Given it’s a World Cup final, the team most likely to induce the slightest amount of fear, panic, nervousness, uncertainty or self-doubt in the Australians are probably the most likely to win.

You may say, “Well that’s a stupid statement. Obviously if either New Zealand or Sri Lanka start the game well, then they’re equally as likely to induce those feelings upon the Australians.” However, I feel that those feelings I listed above will be induced before the first ball of the final is bowled. So I pose the question, who would the Australians prefer to play in the final?

Ricky Ponting has spoken at various times about New Zealand before and during this World Cup. It is evident that he sees them as a potential threat and it would be hard for him not to after the Black Caps' dominance in the Chappell-Hadlee Trophy just two months ago. The Australians know, however, that on paper they come out very much the stronger side, but memories of Shane Bond’s recent performances against them will haunt them.

Bond is undoubtedly the No.1 pace bowler in the world at present. His bowling has been second to none, and he loves bowling against the Aussies, boasting an average of 13.88 runs per wicket against them. Will Matthew Hayden and Adam Gilchrist think they can take the attack to him or will they target other bowlers? They will know that bowlers like Daniel Vettori and Jacob Oram aren’t a bunch of mugs, but they’ll want to post at least 300 if they bat first.

Stephen Fleming is a great captain and if there’s anyone who would love to beat Australia in a World Cup final then it’s him, and the Australians know it. The Aussies also know that most of the New Zealand batsmen have made runs against them recently and will anticipate a driven team of Black Caps with nothing to lose.

With regards to Sri Lanka, it’s a different ball game. The last time they met in a World Cup final, the Australians were left devastated after an Aravinda De Silva master class. However, this is 11 years on and the hurt from 1996 is more likely to spur the Australians on than it will encourage the Sri Lankans. I doubt the Aussies would be losing too much sleep over Sri Lanka’s batting after their last encounter. Most Lankan batsmen have a poor record against them, anyway, and the bouncy pitch at Barbados will suit Australia much more than it will suit Sri Lanka.

However, I think Australia’s two major concerns will be the Tom Moody factor and the unity of the Sri Lankan side. Moody, arguably the best coach in the world, is an Aussie through and through. He’s won the World Cup as a player and he knows how the Australians like to prepare. He knows the old guard like Gilchrist, Glenn McGrath and Hayden inside and out. There is no doubt in my mind that it was his idea to ‘rest’ his top three bowling assets against the Aussies earlier, and I think Ponting and Co know that.

Australia’s team unity and belief is only matched by Sri Lanka’s, and that could be a thorn for Australia if Sri Lanka start well in the field. Australia would look to deflate them early, but will know that going for big runs in the initial stages may be too dangerous a tactic, given Sri Lanka’s exceptional bowling depth and fielding quality.

To conclude, I personally believe that Sri Lanka are a better side than New Zealand in all departments bar perhaps captaincy. Taking nothing away from Jayawardene, Fleming is a masterful captain who knows the game as well as anyone playing today. I think Sri Lanka are as good as Australia in the bowling and fielding departments, though, especially without Brett Lee.

However, based on my arguments above, I am inclined to think that the Australians would rather play Sri Lanka in the final. I think that Australia will be stronger psychologically if they were to face Sri Lanka than if they were to play New Zealand. Saying that, if the Aussies play well against Bond in Friday’s (April 20) Super 8 game, I think they’d change their mind.

This article could very well be pointless if South Africa turn the Australians over, which, as a Sri Lanka fan, is what I’m hoping for. Again, no disrespect to South Africa, but if we get to the final we’ve got a better chance of beating the Proteas than we have of beating the Aussies.

It's take your pick time, and we want to hear from you at Sportingo.