After Tuesday’s first rest day, Wednesday's action in the Giro D'Italia features the first mountainous stage, finishing at the Sanctuary of Virgin Mary over the town of Mercogliano in Campania.

The Giro has arrived there twice in the past. In 2001, currently second-placed Danilo Di Luca won the stage and in 2004, Damiano Cunego outsprinted Briton Bradley McGee to claim victory ahead of a small group of riders.

The climb is more like a Tour climb than a Giro one because it’s long (17 km) and doesn’t feature impossible percentages (an average of 5%), with the most difficult part coming near the finish line. The stage will end at the Sanctuary, and I think that’s a pity because the hardest part of the climb comes after the finish line has been crossed, when the road goes towards the former NATO base.

The road towards the Sanctuary is wide and new, hence the overall difficulty of the climb is reduced. In fact, the last time the Giro arrived here in 2004 the selection was not as big as many expected and quite a big group arrived at the top together.

The climb begins in the town of Mercogliano, near Avellino, with a 4.5% incline over the first 4 km and after that we find an easier 2.5 km span with a 3.5% average. The next nine kilometres, all the way up until the last 1,000 meters, average a 5.7% incline on a wonderful and wide road. The hardest part of the climb is the last kilometre when the incline steeps to an average of 9%.

My prediction is that many of the favourites won’t try to attack in the early parts, because it’s much easier on a road so wide and not so steep to stay in the bunch than alone up front. I’ll go further with my bet by saying that this year’s stage will copycat the 2004 one with a group of 20-something riders cruising towards the Sanctuary.

There will be some fireworks maybe only in the last kilometre, either by someone who lost minutes in the first three stages (e.g. Michael Rasmussen of Rabobank, Gilberto Simoni of Saunier Duval or by Di Luca and Cunego, who will try to gain something on the other favourites.

A possible alternative scenario could develop if a good breakaway occurs early in the stage and includes some teammates of the favourites. They can eventually act as bridge-heads for their captains, helping them in case of an attack in the middle part of the climb.

But I think that putting your money on this scenario won’t probably be worth it; we’re still so early in the race that probably no-one will try to push his luck only to gain a handful of seconds, especially riders like Paolo Savoldelli and Cunego, who normally find their top form only from the beginning of the second week.