Home > Football > The irrational exuberance that augurs ill for Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool
by Ashutosh Singh on 10 July 2007
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Famous financial guru Alan Greenspan referred in a famous quote to ''irrational exuberance'' - some time after which the dot-com bubble in the US crashed. But I feel this quote is very apt to today's Premiership, which is burgeoning from mega-deals with Sky and piggy-backing on the largesse of their owners. You have mid-table clubs behaving like Real Madrid, and trying to buy everyone under the sun. Obviously, this has led to inflated player prices and mass hysteria among supporters over expectations for the future. But with only one Premiership champion, four UEFA Champions League spots and a few UEFA Cup places available, not everyone can reach the pinnacle. When the required degree of success is not achieved, what happens to the expectations of the fans, and now much more importantly the expectations of the club owner? 'I can really fall asleep seeing Chelsea or Liverpool play. In fact, I believe loads of people actually did fall asleep while watching that much-hyped and really boring Champions League match'The biggest of them all, Roman Abramovich, seems to have become bored with it all since Chelsea have continually failed to win Champions League. His visits to Stamford Bridge seem to have lessened to quite a degree, and more importantly his cheque book has apparently closed. Still, he can sleep more comfortably at night than most club owners, even if his investments have not given him the returns or the trophy he most craves. The less wealthy clubs really have to look after their investments. Apart from Newcastle's new owner Mike Ashley, I feel that virtually everyone wants to make money out of their clubs. It is a great thought right now to own a club if one has the means, but it is not so much of a good idea when the returns dwindle, which they will tend to do sooner or later. Plus, it is notoriously hard to make real money in football. In this crazy atmosphere, I am convinced that only one club will survive all this and, more importantly, dominate by the end of it. It is Arsenal. Not Liverpool, not Manchester United, not Chelsea, and definitely not Tottenham.
Rafa has already burnt close to £100 million and looks to burn a lot more. And most of us will agree that he has had very little success to show for it. So when his way of achieving success is snubbed, if Liverpool decide to build a new stadium, then where does it leave him - and more importantly the club?Manchester United look great, have achieved recent well-deserved success, and have the biggest stadium and fan base. On the face of it, all looks well. But two things are against them. First, the huge amounts of loan they have taken on account of Malcom Glazer. People point at the Arsenal debt, but you really have to look here for real trouble. The situation looks to be untenable. It can all fall very quickly if things get a little rough. And secondly, the issue of their well-respected and highly successful manager, Sir Alex Ferguson. How many years does he have left in top-flight football? Die-hard optimists may say five years, but no more.
The trouble will arise when Fergie leaves, and the club have a new manager who has a different way of functioning. How will the debt be taken care of then? The best way out ,obviously, is that Glazer sells it to someone who does not need to take a loan to own the club. That is definitely possible, knowing the size of United's support and the profit-making opportunity. The other solution is to make Sir Alex immortal. Jokes aside, they are definitely in a much better position then Liverpool, for whom I really fear. Tottenham can be best described as a selling club. They get excellent rewards for the scouting they do for new players. But the illusion that they have to win something is going to be their downfall. They were really doing very well, performing and behaving like a mid-table club. But now mistaken ambition is making them bite off more than they can chew by signing players like Darren Bent. He is a good player, but hell not worth £16m. Spurs are perennial under-achievers supported by dreamy-eyed followers. Now coming back to Arsenal. The present situation does not look too good - £350m in debt and a young, inexperienced team. Saddled with board uncertainties, they now seem ready for the taking. But the housing project in Highbury will soon finish. And, having already sold 85% percent of the flats at a time of boom in the housing market, they have done well. They will get a good £150m back from it - and can recover the rest easily. They have one of the best stadiums in Europe, with significantly increased corporate seats. Earnings have already increased from £130m to £200m. And with a waiting list for season tickets, which are one of the highest-priced in Europe, they are in a comfortable situation.
One of the reasons for this under-estimation is the success Arsenal have had in dealing with it. But one has only to look at delays and cost overruns at Wembley to be reminded of the pitfalls.One of the most surprising things is that Arsenal are still one of the most attractive football-playing sides on the planet, alongside Barcelona and Manchester United. That is why they have such phenomenal support. I would go on to say that, if left with Chelsea and Liverpool, Sky would in all probability sign a much much cheaper contract with the FA. I can really fall asleep seeing Chelsea or Liverpool play. In fact, I believe loads of people actually did fall asleep while watching that much hyped and really boring Champions League match. So as of now, nobody is jumping ship. Henry wanted to play for Barcelona, that's a small truth. I feel the bigger truth was that Wenger let him leave. Just like he let Patrick Vieira leave. Both had illusions of playing with world-class players. Well, now Vieira, at the end of his career, only makes the headlines when he says anything about Arsenal. As for Henry, I wish him well, but I do not think he will get the God-like treatment at Barcelona that he got at Arsenal. Both these players were wrong in one plain simple fact. World-class players were forming right in front of their eyes. The results are there to be seen. And those world-class stars will continue to form at Arsenal because they have one of the best scouting networks in the world, which delivers players who they do not sell. Backed by the coaching of Arsene, who makes them play in the famous Arsenal way, and with a very good sports science-oriented backroom staff, this team could really explode. This irrational exuberance, when it ends, will have few winners and loads of losers. I think Gunners fans should be thankful, me being one of them, that the reins of the club are being handled very ably by Wenger.
Comments (78)
by Essexian76 (not the gay one) on July 06, 2007
We only sold Carrick because the fee was over the top and also the player wanted to leave.By the same assumption does that make Arsenal more of a selling club in the light of Pires,Henry,Viera, and so on leaving them.utter cobblers.
by Roy on July 06, 2007
Sorry, I really fell asleep during the third paragraph of the article. What a yawn.
by PHIL on July 06, 2007
What has Rafa to show? How about the European cup and FA cup in three seasons? When did Man u, Chelsea or Arsenal last win the biggest title there is to win? Liverpool are most certainly heading in the right direction, no mistake. £20million for Torres is a bargain when you consider £16.5 million for Bent, an England reject, with Alan Smith keeping him out of the England squad. You really are deluded.
by klaus on July 06, 2007
you have missed the main point....outside the top four spending is NOT motivated by getting in to the top four, but by fear of getting sucked into the bottom three...westhams narrow escape will have frightened the life out of any body who spent 100 mio quid on a middle of the road club...the diffrence between relegation and uefa cup is probably about 5 wins...over 38 games thats fuck all..as far as Man U is concerned, they know that the only way to scare chelsea is to spend more...if they get tevez, they will be very hot....liverpool are buying the wrong players as per usual...shoudl have bot tevez not torres....spurs will make progress, jol is a canny operator...arsenal will be there, but havent got enuff experience..newcastle for the time in livin memory have a good manager... but chelsea are the only ones who have a settled team, got clever replacements for the ACN, youngster coming thru like smith and sinclair and are mightily pissed off that MAN U beat them last year...as fergie said before` the secon
by The Crowing Cockerel on July 06, 2007
The White Elephant called the Emirates is the only reason Arsenal havent bought anyone.And before all the gooner fans jump up and down in their caravans, why did Dein resign over the American, if it wasnt that he knew they were in financial difficulties. All of this talk of a warchest of 60 million is a best laughable to a spurs supporter as you actually believe it to be true when all of the evidence points in a different direction altogether.....Downwards
..as fergie said before` the second year is more difficult than the first...CFC champions by easter...
by Dave on July 06, 2007
I think you need to look at the age of Carrick and the ages of Pires, Henry and Vieira. I don't believe either Spurs or Arsenal are selling clubs, it's just that Arsenal seem to have the framework to fulfil their ambitions, whereas Spurs haven't yet put that in place.
by mjc on July 06, 2007
Crowning Cock (or whatever your name is) Dein was sacked/fired/pushed out the door, he didn't resign. As for money, we earned £200m last season. Rather eclipses your £80m earnings.
by BetterdeadthanRED on July 06, 2007
What a pile of crap, Henry is suddenly past it, when only a few days ago he was the second coming.Laughable is the best that could be said about this piece of garbage (jeez I cleaned that up quite well)
Waffle, warchest, waffle Henry, waffle, young kids, waffle,Wenger,waffle Dein...who cares whether he was pushed or resigned........YOUR SKINT!!!!!!!!!!!
by Zae on July 06, 2007
Really, Sportingo's adulation of Arsenal is a bit tiresome but not unexpected - the entire English press is in love with the Gunners for some unfathomable reason. But please tell me, why would be United's debt taken care of in a different way after Fergie's retirement? The managing of the debt is the Glazers' job, it's not the manager's business. He's got nothing to do with and the repayment of United's massive loans will continue regardless of the manager of the football team. "Arsenal's future is bright" - How often we heard that... there are no big four but a big two. Liverpool are always champions during pre-season but realistically, it will be a United v Chelsea fight again.
by Essexian76 9not the gay one) on July 06, 2007
My point exactly, no point in keeping a player who wants to leave or when silly money is thrown at you, like we did with Bent!
by Anon 1 on July 06, 2007
Well said...Pires, Vieira and Henry were past their prime when we sold them...we've built a new ground whilst rebuilding an entire squad and still reached two cup finals...we don't need a benefactor and we're gonna win everything in sight...Spuds who think they're close to us should rewatch the four times we met last year and remember they only made the uefa crap on the last day of the season while we qualified for the champs months before despite the worst injury crisis anyone has ever seen.
by Scouse Billy on July 06, 2007
Dream on, kid ;)
by Fred on July 06, 2007
This is all supposition and invention - how does he know Abramovitch is bored? All wishful thinking I think.
by Franco Mizzi on July 06, 2007
Dear Mr. Singh, You must be an Arsenal fan trying to convince yourself that everything is fine on your side of the fence. First of all Arsenal are well in debt, due to the Emirates Stadium. Secondly that is the same reason why Arsenal can not indulge in the transfer market. Third and not least none of the money the likes of Manchester United, Liverpool etc are spending is coming from the coffers but from the extra GBP 50,000,000 they are gaining from the overseas package and mark this words not from SKY. That contract is completely different then the overseas one. Therfore my dear Mr. Singh just weep and try to console yourself whilst Manchester United clean all before them next season and one very last thing if the players purchased by Manchester United stay with the club for the rest of their careers or close to it then it would have been a very sound investment in actual fact even if they had to leave after 5 or 6 year, that would put the likes of Anderson, Ronaldo, Rooney & Nani in their mid to late t
by Joel Cairo on July 06, 2007
The promised land for TV sports is the United States, and it is US exposure that is enriching all the clubs, but it is the exciting, beautiful game, that played by ManU and Arsenal, that will capture and hold that audience. That, and maybe the strength and iron will of Mourinho's men, because Americans admire the toughness of players like Essian, Terry, Carvalho and Drogba. The world is full of big spenders who paid more than fair market value for their players -- we know that, too. If you want to know why Arsenal is so well covered, take off the blinders! They're the best team to watch, bar none, in the EPL, where the beautiful game must be played against tough defense, unlike in Spain. And, they're taking the road less travelled, and so are a far more interesting subject of conversation than the one-note discussion which can be had about Spurs and Liverpool: did their extravagance get the return it required? Boring.
by Colin on July 06, 2007
Arsenal are going to win everything? Why? You say that the Champions league final was boring but then so was the previous one!Liverpool are going to be in freefall in a few years but they have brought in 14 players already this summer! Most of them are youth players with Leiva, Voronin and Torres in the first team squad. That leaves 11 youth players. At long last we have a manager who is following Wenger's plan and getting in players young in the hope that they will make it when they are older. Benitez is planning for the time when he will not have loads of cash to spend because we are building a new stadium as Arsenal have done.It has worked for Arsenal and it should work for us as well. I think that Arsenal do play great football on occasion but they also have a tendency to try and walk the ball into the back of the net too often. man Utd and Chelsea are also still buying players and the one thing that has to be noted at all these clubs is that they are buying young players (Chelsea not as much as the othe
I've seen Arsenal written off before, just before they went an entire Premiership season and their competitors made big pre-season signings. I think Arsenal's chances of winning the Premiership are on the outside. Not making a big money signing doesn't preclude them from winning it. United are favourites for me, then Chelsea. Whether Liverpool end up above Arsenal is up in the air. Although Arsenal look unsettled as a club ATM there's very little turnover in the first 11. The period around the ANC might be problematic. I don't think Spurs will break into the top four. I'm not convinced there's the know-how in the club just yet. Doing well in the league is a matter of consistency. I do think they'll finish in the top 5 though :-) I think we'll know more 10 games in :-)
by Manish on July 06, 2007
I am so very sure that arsenal are a very well run side. but u see history is not on their side. See the historical lesson for the current trend comes from Italy. The might of AC milan and inter came with the moneybag owners (berlusconi).The italian giants whom we now carelessly mention in best clubs ever. (Milans all CL victorys are after mid 80s.) Same thing now is happening with england .Chelsea, liv and manu are now attracting the best players. And as for going broke, no chance sir. No not even your beloved arsenal ,not liverpool, not chelsea and definetely not manu. Cause the money these guys get from league and sponsorship is enough to handle at least 50 million spending every year as per the new earning for the top four who play in CL. and arsenal is only there because of their new stadium. See it this way, if rafa leaves, liverpool wont be that bad mate.Even before him we won some cups and were good enough.(" I really fear for them", haha. really??). Manu if fergie goes,have enough tradition of a
by 46 and still counting on July 06, 2007
I always thought of myself as a FOOTBALL supporter - The main stick other "supporters" are hitting Arsenalwith would seem to be hitting us with is the fact (?) that Arsenal have less money than their team. None of us - me included - have inside details of exactly what the financial situation is at their club or is likely to be in the future but OK I will go along with you we are SKINT. WE STILL PLAY BETTER FOOTBALL THAN THE REST OF YOU ( ManUre excepted ) Well done Chelsea - YOu play Shit football in a shit stadium and have a nega bucks backer. For Chelsea substitute Liverpool ( Anfield great history shit ground even you want out ) As for the Spuds you are a complete joke and not worth comparison. As For ManUSA - Respect for your achievements but you have just spunked over £50m again - WEll done you have loadsa cash - and loadsa debt. The media love Arsenal - have a fucking word i have seen nothing but bad press because a slightly over the hill player who has been a unsettling influence in the dressing ro
by Vivas on July 06, 2007
I think you made some good points but there are a few things I would add. First on Chelsea, I dont think that Abramovitch is bored but rather we have to bear in mind that he has a huge about of business interests in addition to Chelsea. Several of his fellow oligachs have fallen foul of Putin and it would be prudent for him to keep Putin onside. I think this is a more logical explanation for his absense. Spurs i have never understood. Where does all their money come from? I think that this has to be the season for them; if they dont make the champions league places this season then there will be some serious issues with money for them. Moreover whatever Spurs fans say about Arsenal lack of transfer activity, the long term future of Arsenal looks much better with the Stadium in place, raising greater revenue. Man Utd wont make many signing for the coming seasons after this one. I think this summer is special for them in the sense that they are spending now to ensure they dont have to spend in the following