After the champagne fizz has flattened, the first question asked by fans and punters of clubs which gain promotion to the Premiership is of course ‘can they stay up?’ Reading and Wigan in recent times have bucked the trend of teams being able to cope with the jump into the big-time. You could say that it’s like playing 38 FA Cup third-round ties in a season - each game is a bit of a mountain for the newlyweds. After three games, they find the honeymoon is well and truly over.

This season there’s a bit of added spice with Sunderland’s incredible rise up the Championship last season under Roy Keane. It should be a pub-quiz question: How did a new manager manage to turn a bunch of journeymen into promotion winners? JK Rowling has plenty of material for her next wizard fictional character on this one.

So how will the Black Cats fare? First of all, let’s get the issue of fanatical support out of the way. Yes, they really do have great support, particularly the diehards who will travel to the four corners of England to watch their heroes. But I don’t believe the old maxim that fans are worth a certain number of points per season.

'The crucial point is that Keane must not allow the team to go on the same miserable run that saw them go down with a record low 15 points in 2005-6'


If we take the magical 40 points as the safety net, that means ten wins and ten draws. It doesn’t sound like much but for me, the crucial point is that Keane must not allow the team to go on the same miserable run that saw them go down with a record low 15 points in 2005-6 - from three wins and six draws.

It seems absurd that a club would actually approach a season in this way, hoping only to stay up and not aiming higher. But it is actually a logical way to go about business. Stay up, consolidate and build over five years. I bet Birmingham's Steve Bruce and Derby County's Billy Davies are thinking just the same way as they move the salt and pepper pots around in the local chippy while considering tactics.

Keane was a once-in-a-generation footballer. Seven Premiership titles, four FA Cups, four Community Shields and a Champions League with Manchester United, plus a Scottish Premier League and League Cup with Celtic, would probably put him in the top five per cent of achieving footballers. And of course he cracked the jackpot with Sunderland last season.