Charles Dickens was right – take everything on evidence, not how it looks. Pre-season, everything must surely have looked good for Tottenham fans. Off the back of a fifth-place finish last season, coupled with the arrival of Gareth Bale, Younes Kaboul and Darren Bent for an outlay of around £35m, perhaps this would be the year to usurp bitter rivals Arsenal and steal that fourth place and with it the Holy Grail of the Champions League. 

Now, not even a month into the season, with all the talking over let's take a look at the evidence. A totally predictable opening day defeat away to newly-promoted Sunderland in front of the TV cameras (granted Michael Chopra saved the script with that dramatic late winner) and another fairly obvious demolition of the other new arrivals, Derby County (who look the weakest of the three Premier League new boys). The only surprise so far has been the fairly lame surrender at White Hart Lane to Everton in a 3-1 reverse which saw boos echo around north London and rumours about the security of Martin Jol's job echo around all the newspapers.

This is the Premier League, the land where money talks. The trouble is the chatter is extraordinarily loud this season.Tottenham's expenditure aside, the value of transfers this summer has been remarkable. Manchester City have spent £40 million and West Ham £30 million-plus – to put this into perspective, AC Milan earned around the same for winning last season's European Cup.

'Jol should take the compensation package and walk out of the Lane knowing that he's taken Tottenham to the limit of their ambitions'


The problem for some teams is that money, and the lavish spending of it in pursuit of success, skews expectations.  Tottenham's semi-rise over the past few seasons now means they expect Champions League football – chairman Daniel Levy has reiterated this requirement in the past few days. Is it a realistic aim? They would need to displace one of the Big Four and, taking each in turn, the demise of the Premier League giants has been widely exaggerated. Sir Alex Ferguson may fear for his championship ambitions already but his Manchester United team have never finished below third in 15 seasons. The Chelsea juggernaut appears relentless, if not in its style, certainly in its results. And if they are struggling by January 2008 then they have the man at the top who could comfortably outspend anyone else to retrieve the situation. Liverpool are the curiosity for this season (they would be my tip for the title) as they have seemingly finally spent to match their fans' ambitions.

So that leaves Arsenal, possibly the weakest of the four in the post-Thierry Henry era. He will be missed but there is already a school of thought that new opportunity may open up for Arsenal's talented youngsters. Henry dominated Arsenal to the extent that it might just have inhibited and intimidated younger players – time and results will tell.

Despite some odd results thrown up in the opening shakedowns of the season, the top four come May 2008 will read the same as last year. The fascination will be in what order. What does this mean for Jol, a decent guy and capable manager whose post-match summaries are excellent. Jol should accept the compensation package and walk out of the Lane knowing that he's taken Tottenham to the limit of their ambitions – the big four are here to stay where they are for the foreseeable future.

Where will Tottenham finish this season?  Fifth, of course – with or without the likeable Mr Jol.  They are a good team, just not a great one...