Half a dozen or so games into what is already an intriguing campaign, we are pretty sure of who will finish in the top four. But of equal interest to football fans – and, yes, there are supporters outside the CALM (that's Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United) zone – is the relegation battle, which was far more exciting than the race for the title last season.

I think it would be a fair bet to suggest that dear old Spurs are not going down (despite their position at present in the bottom three). Currently at the bottom are Derby County and if I was a betting man (which I can't afford to be), I'd be down the high street to put my house and family on the East Midlanders playing Championship football again next season.

Saturday's thrashing at the Emirates followed a hiding at Anfield and although Billy Davies's lads got three good points at home to Newcastle, they just do not have the strength, never mind the depth, to stay up. The Derby squad has a lot of solidity, but if you compare it to, say, West Ham last year, it does not have too much quality to call on as the Hammers did even in that awful run.

‘I just don't think Birmingham and Sunderland are good enough to stay up, but then I didn't think they were good enough to go up last season.’


Bolton are a bit of a surprise package among the relegation zone teams. Now it's an interesting conundrum. How does a squad made up of roughly the same players perform so differently under two managers? Sammy Lee, a decent player with Liverpool and England but struggling with the technical area; Sam Allardyce, a journeyman player who has become a truly great manager. And the same players who were taken by Allardyce to the top of the pyramid are now finding it hard to be motivated. I fear for Bolton – it's not enough to say they are too good to go down.

I also fear for Fulham and Reading. Yes, I know Lawrie Sanchez and Steve Coppell are good managers with a track record, but again, they lead squads of high-quality players who are under-performing.

The problem lies in confidence. If ever there was a cliche which was spot on it is the one about results breeding confidence. Look at West Ham's revival last season  which just about mirrored Sheffield United's and Wigan's demise, although the Latics somehow survived. And how interesting that Wigan this season under a new manager are sitting fairly comfortably.

Then there is the Sunderland-Birmingham factor. If they were boxers (no comments please), they would either be sprawled across the canvas early in the fight (doesn't look like that will happen), or putting up a plucky battle despite giving away some serious weight, only to lose on points. I just don't think they are good enough to stay up, but then I didn't think they were good enough to go up last season.

But to spice things up, it's always good to have the 'romance' of a team not expected to feature in the dogfight. So which of the following do you fancy? Portsmouth, Boro, West Ham, and dare I suggest, Manchester City, despite their start and Sven's Midas touch?

So my five to battle out for the drop are Derby, Sunderland, Birmingham, Fulham and Bolton. And for the sake of those clubs' fans, I hope I am proved wrong.

Yes, but which three will actually go down? Post your predictions below – or write your own Sportingo article.