Arrivederci AC Milan – Fiorentina to win the fight for the last Champions League place in Italy

Four games to go in Serie A and three teams have already booked their Champions League spots for next season and three are battling to be the fourth Italian team to compete in the lucrative competition.

Inter and Roma have been well ahead for most of the season and qualified a few rounds ago. Juve are 12 points ahead of Milan and Sampdoria and the only way they would fail to qualify is if Fiorentina overtook them and they lost all their remaining matches, including against Sampdoria on the final day.

This would leave Samp and Juve level on points with Samp taking fourth on head to head. This would be further complicated if Milan also finished on equal points, as they have a better head to head against Samp, but Juve have a better head to head against Milan!

My understanding is that it would go to goal difference, in which case it would probably go to Milan or Juve. However, Juve are unlikely to lose to either Siena or Catania even if they do lose to Samp and Lazio, and I feel rather safe in predicting they will take third spot.

Fiorentina are currently fourth and strong favourites to take the final spot – points on the board and all. Fiorentina face Sampdoria and Parma at home and Cagliari and Torino away. But that crucial match against Samp is stuck between their UEFA Cup semi matches against Rangers. Three virtually must-win matches in seven days might stretch them a bit too much and a good showing against Rangers in the first leg will be vital to take the pressure off.