The Air New Zealand Cup play-off picture only snapped into focus with the final kick in round-robin play - and threw up a few surprises, too.

Auckland, the 2007 champions, went into their last round-robin game against Northland needing a single point to make the top eight. But a last-minute penalty by Ash Moeke - ironically on loan from Auckland - denied them the bonus point and sees them miss out on this year's finals.

Auckland's franchise partners in the Super 14s, Blues, Northland and North Harbour, also missed out on the quarter-finals, leaving Blues coach Pat Lam with a few headaches ahead of his first season in charge.

At the top of the table there are more surprises, with teams from outside the Super 14 centres such as Hawkes Bay and Bay of Plenty claiming home quarter-finals. That Wellington and Canterbury occupy the top two spots in the table should come as no surprise, especially as both are home to Super 14 franchises which made the semi-finals earlier this year.

After ten rounds of play, the race for the title comes down to three rounds of sudden-death elimination, and as previous results have shown so far this year, expect at least one big upset.

Canterbury could well be in the firing line for an upset, facing neighbours Tasman in an all Crusaders quarter-final. The loss of Mose Tuiali'i, who suffered a neck injury after an accidental elbow from a teammate, will be a big one as Tuiali'i has been back to his barnstorming best recently. However, that loss could be offset by a possible return of All Blacks captain Richie McCaw, who will train with the team this week.

Waikato also take on their franchise partners, Hawke's Bay, in Napier but unlike the other Super 14 bases, they will go in as underdogs. Hawke's Bay have been somewhat the surprise package of this year's competition, recovering from a shaky start to finish third in the table, picking up wins over more-fancied opponents such as Taranaki, Tasman and even Waikato back in Week 8.

The other quarter-finals see Southland take on Bay of Plenty in what should be a very close game between two similar teams, and Wellington playing Taranaki in the battle of the Hurricanes.

The Southland vs Bay of Plenty game is the closest of the four quarter-finals, and not just because the teams finished fourth and fifth, but because they play very similar styles of rugby, keeping their game-plan simple and making few mistakes.

Finally, the Wellington vs Taranaki match is probably the easiest to pick, as Wellington have dominated all-comers until their team of reserves came unstuck against Otago in the final round. While Wellington had nothing to lose or gain from their final round-robin game, Taranaki needed to pick up a bonus point against Waikato, then wait on other results to qualify for the play-offs.

This year's Air New Zealand Cup has certainly been one of the more interesting, mostly because the teams are more even than they have been in the past, particularly without front-line All Blacks. But whatever the results, there will be some teams from outside the Super 14 centres in the semi-finals, flying the flag for the provinces.