Doesn't it feel weird not having North Harbour, Auckland and Otago even in the top four for the semi-finals in this year's Air New Zealand Cup? Instead, it's Wellington and Canterbury who have been surprising, but it's Hawkes Bay and Southland who have stunned us all season.

People are  thinking of a Wellington v Canterbury final, but some feel that if their opponents can continue the form they have shown, we could be in for an upset this season. But that won't happen.

Wellington, if they are to progress to the final, have to play the rugby that we are used to. They have to get more forwards into the breakdown because they simply weren't aggressive enough, and Taranaki pounced on that through Scott Waldrom.

Ma'a Nonu has to play his best rugby because he is having a bad time dropping the ball and turning it over. They have to give the job to Hosea Gear because he is a dynamic runner with the ball and can score some great tries. He should be in the end-of-year tour.

I have not watched a lot of Southland this season but if they want to beat top-of-the-table Wellington they have to be at their best, stop Wellington scoring early - and stay focused throughout the game. If they can do that, they can pull off a major upset.

Kick off is 7.35pm at Westpac Stadium, and the odds are $1.14  Wellington, $5.25 Southland.

The other semi-final should be a beauty as Canterbury host Hawkes Bay.

Canterbury have won 10 in a row and are clear favourites. All they have to do is play the kind of rugby they have produced so many times this season. They have to get the ball out wide to the backs and do a couple of crashballs, keep it in the forwards, and keep Hawkes Bay geussing what they'll do next. Oh, and Richie McCaw should start the match because he is the best flanker in world rugby.

If Hawkes Bay want to pull off the big upset they have to be as tight in defence as they were last week against Waikato, put on pressure at the back, and kick into the corners for territory and possession.

Kick off is 7.35pm at Jade Staduim, Christchurch, and the odds are $1.10 Canterbury, $6.25 Hawkes Bay.