South Africa are still the team to beat – but watch out for the All Blacks and Wales

It is an intriguing question – with Australia (Robbie Deans), South Africa (Peter De Villiers), France (Marc Lievremont), Italy (Nick Mallet), Wales (Warren Gatland) Argentina (Santiago Phelan and Fabián Turnes) and now England (Martin Johnson) all with new coaches. All of these men have arrived with considerable pedigree; each man has represented their country and racked up considerable domestic careers. Johnson, despite being a World Cup-winning captain, has no first-class coaching experience. The others have a wealth of international and top club knowledge.

This year will be the most demanding schedule in history, with all major nations playing between 14 and 16 Test matches.

We have already had a solid view of the North, with the Six Nations completed, and Wales deserved Grand Slam champions. They will play the World Cup title-holders in South Africa – a superb test of the Springboks’ four-year championship reign. The Welsh are essentially the third best team in the world. There is one challenge they did not face in the Six Nations – that was a team imposing its own style and disrupting the Red Dragons’ systems. The world champions will endeavour to do this.

World Cup runners-up England are now an unknown quantity, Johnson being the first international supremo in the modern era with no first-class coaching experience. He will instill grit in a defensive, patient side who are able to shut-out quality opposition, as shown in recent victories over the Wallabies and French.  With so much depth, they should be in the top five – but much will rest on Johnson’s influence.

France are dangerous – with coach Lievremont injecting much youth into his team and instilling them with a attacking mentality so prevalent, that they can be shut down with a strategy. But with a menacing three-quarter line and quick phase coordination, they will become more dangerous as they round out their style. Their infancy would give them a top six position.

Italy – aside from catching the Red Dragons in their most dominant game – were competitive throughout the Six Nations and show far more class, especially in the set piece. Ireland and Scotland are on the verge of disaster. Scotland have lost 22 games since 2005, over half of them by 20 points or more. Ireland, almost Grand Slammers in last year’s Six Nations and the World Cup dark horses, have lost form unseen at this level in years. They would huddle at the bottom of the top 10 nations, but Ireland still contains game breakers, which the Azzuri and the Scots do not. The Irish may be rejuvenated under a new coach.

In the South, Argentina have been officially invited into the Tri-Nations – on the condition they field their strongest team. The Pumas will host Scotland for two Tests in June. The World Champions will host Argentina for one Test, as may the All Blacks (yet unannounced). They showed tactical nous and efficiency to be “bronze medalists” at the World Cup, but with a two-coach set-up, they must keep to their reliable game plan and abrasive forward play. On the strength of their World Cup they are a deserved top-six team, but their sparse 2008 program will not benefit them. 

South Africa showed a rudimentary style of play to win the Cup, but did not play against attack-minded nations to win the title (New Zealand, France and Australia). With a policy of selecting players wherever they play, they will not be weaker; but they have the double-edged sword of having the confidence of champions, and being the marked team for the next four years.

The All Blacks are the only major nation to retain their coach. With a damning World Cup review released, New Zealand showed lack of strategic nous in their exit and will be weakened by the biggest player exodus in their history. With an imposing recent record, they will be belligerent and wanting to prove the paradigm point – that they are the best team in the world. Much rests on Graham Henry’s shoulders, as their near unstoppable disposition has been halted. They host Ireland and England to open the season, play four Tests against the Wallabies and will end the season with a Grand Slam tour. The national set-up needs a strong intercontinental performance, with the domestic Kiwi game in rude health.

South Africa, are deserved champions, but there is no denying the All Blacks record of 78-15 since the turn of the century. The Springboks are the pragmatic defensive percentage team, but the All Blacks are a superior offensive team. At this point, there is little separating the IRB’s first and second ranked teams.

The Wallabies are the danger team of 2008, with new coach Deans boasting the finest top-level domestic coaching record arguably of all time. The Wallabies will adjust to having a new playing axis, with test centurions Stephen Larkham and George Gregan gone. Their pack will be under scrutiny – and they host the world’s most attack-minded team, France, for two Tests. With 14 Tests and a match against the BaaBaa’s, we will know in 2009 where they stand. They would be ranked in the top six based on their new master coach, but will have to readjust their modus operandi.

The Pacific Island teams, with a good World Cup, round out the top 13. Fiji, with an excellent World Cup – defeating Wales and threatening the eventual champions, – would be in the top 10, but without top level competition, they cannot flourish. It is hard to gauge as they play second tier New Zealand and Australian teams in 2008.

IRB RANKINGS

1 – South Africa,
2 – New Zealand
3 – Argentina
4 – Australia
5 – England
6 – Wales
7 – France
8 – Ireland
9 – Fiji
10 – Scotland
11 – Italy
12 – Samoa

THE REALISTIC RANKING
Equal 1 – South Africa and New Zealand
3 – Wales
4 – Argentina
5 – England
6 (equal) – France and Australia
8 – Ireland
9 (equal) – Italy and Fiji
11 – Scotland
12 - Samoa