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France can upset the All Blacks now - but Springboks will lead the World Cup challenge

In-form South Africa look most likely to upset New Zealand come the autumn. But will they peak too early? And which other countries are in the mix?

by Peter Sickle on 31 May 2007

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Wales try-scorer Jamie Robinson celebrates against Australia last weekend (Gettyimages.com)

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The span of six weeks from mid-June to mid-July is my favourite time of year. Even the most ardent northern hemisphere rugby fan must admit the Tri Nations competition represents simply the best rugby in the world.

Still, the next two weeks will provide a preview to possible matches in the Rugby World Cup knockout round this October.

This Saturday, the top four southern hemisphere teams in the IRB rankings will host their counterparts in the northern hemisphere with New Zealand (1) v. France (2); Australia (3) v. Wales (8); South Africa (4) v. England (7); and Argentina (6) v. Ireland (5). The following week, the All Blacks will face France for a second Test, while Australia will host Fiji, South Africa will face Samoa and Argentina will battle Italy.

Among the hosts, I predict South Africa to display the best form and would expect them to go into the Tri Nations competition as the team to beat. England would need to play a virtually error-free match to come out on top, but I pick the Springboks to win by at least 15 points. Against Samoa, look for a winning margin of closer to 25 points.

While I would still choose the All Blacks if I had to pick a winner of the World Cup later this year, they are still a few weeks away from their top form. I have a feeling that both Tests against France will be up for grabs up to full time and I think France will steal a victory in Auckland but fall to a re-energised All Black side in Hamilton the following week.

Australia are not playing up to their potential of late, but they should come away with victories against Wales and Fiji, though perhaps with more effort than they will expect. The Wallabies will hold on, but both challengers should stay within a try or two of upsetting their hosts.

Although Ireland have a number of star players, I pick Argentina pulling out a narrow victory in a preview of their September 30 meeting in Paris that will likely decide which of the two advances to the quarter-finals from Pool D. Argentina should follow next Saturday with a more decisive victory against Italy by at least 10 points.

While it might seem as though the World Cup is far off, the next several weeks will give us a good glimpse into the future. Not a perfect crystal ball, perhaps, but as close as we will get.

Comments (4)

by Scott Donaldson on May 31, 2007

The All Blacks will dominate the French in both tests. They are playing against an inexperienced French side with so many new caps and I would be surprised if the All Blacks don't put 50 past them in each game. FYI The second test against France is in Wellington. Hamilton will host the Canadians on the 16th June.

by James on June 01, 2007

I don't think even the French believe they have a shot at winning either of these tests. And thats just because of the circumstances. They, like England, are missing more than 20 of their first choice players, they arrived in New Zealand fresh off the plane earlier this week, and have never played together before. The All Blacks are playing close to their strongest team. At home. If the all blacks don't take both tests by at least 25 points, there will be alarm bells ringing. I also disagree regards Samoa. I think the Pacific Islanders have a stronger team than the English one that will play South Africa. England to go down by 20 or more points. Samoa by a smiliar margin.

by Dickoir on June 01, 2007

Firstly I don't think that the Welsh (Pommie wannabe) that is Stephen Jones would agree that the Tri nations is the best competition. However, I digress, it is what it is...generally played at a frantic pace, by the 3 (ususally) best teams on offer. What I would like to know is if the author of the above tripe is betting on a French win in Auckalofa...as an Aussie would say "tell im he's dreaming". Right on one point. South Africa will be the biggest challenge for WC07 for the ABs. Too bad they will meet in the semi's (correct me if I'm wrong).

by Leo Ryan on June 14, 2007

eh Ireland have no star players they left their starting 15 at home!! NZ will easily beat a 4th/5th string French side and i believe the Six Nations is easy equally as good if not better having watched both.