The real rugby begins this weekend with the Tri-Nations starting in South Africa. It is difficult to know how much chopping and changing will occur, but the next six weeks will make for competitive matches with more intensity than we have seen in recent weeks.

Australia have named a full-strength line-up for Saturday's opener at Newlands and barring injuries will be competitive - despite already being written off. If their novice front row can sustain the power of both the South Africans and All Blacks, then their experienced backline will be dangerous. The Wallabies have paper-thin depth which threatens to derail their year, but with so many quality players and some smart play, they will cause problems.

The combination of George Gregan, Stephen Larkham, Matt Giteau, Stirling Mortlock and Lote Tuqiri are quality and with a handy pack  - the achilles being the front row - they could peak in time for the World Cup. They have won the tournament twice and made the final in 2003. Needless to say, everyone wrote them off before the last two World Cups and they reached the final both times.

'New Zealand's conveyer belt is running thin on back-up, but this is a great test of coach Graham Henry’s ability'


The South Africans had the form sides in the Super 14 and with top players like Victor Matfield, Pierre Spies, Juan Smith, Jon Smit and Bakkies Botha, they have a great mix of power and ball players. Ruan Pienaar replaces injured star half-back Fourie Du Preez and while Bryan Habana is also crocked, he will return towards the end of the campaign with Pretorius.

The Boks have finally got quality game breakers like Jean De Villiers, Percy Montgomery and JP Pietersen but their one weak point is fly-half. Butch James is robust, but he is no Dan Carter - and Franc Steyn is too green at this stage.

The All Blacks have game breakers all over the paddock. Their Tri-Nations campaign could see plenty of experimenting, but they have suffered some serious injuries, especially in the locking department. The conveyer belt is running thin on back-up, but this is a great test of coach Graham Henry’s ability. Keith Robinson and Ali Williams will return at a later date and the new talent will get a stern test from world-class Matfield and Botha and the Wallaby players Dan Vickermann and Nathan Sharpe.

The inclusion of Reuben Thorne will give New Zealand more options at lineout time, but he is less dynamic than Jerry Collins. Richie McCaw and Carter will be used sparingly before the World Cup, but that will only give quality back up like Chris Masoe and Nick Evans a chance to mesmerise the opposition.

My pick for the Tri-Nations is the All Blacks. They will be as professional as always - but they do have a tendency to dominate everything between World Cups and then choke when it really counts.