There are only 44 days to go before the start of the Rugby Union World Cup in France and, with over two million tickets sold, the tournament promises to be one of the best-attended yet. But what kind of competition will supporters be treated to on the field of play? A carnival of world rugby with an abundance of close competitive games; or just a glorified Tri-Nations series with supporting cast?

Since the introduction of the World Cup in 1987, only England’s victory in 2003 has broken the Tri-Nations stranglehold on the Webb Ellis Trophy and the form book, coming into this World Cup, suggests that the dominance of the big three is set to continue.

New Zealand, Australia and South Africa enter the tournament in peak condition, having competed in one of the most intense Tri-Nations series yet. Compare those games with the recent Six Nations tournament and it is evident that the gulf in quality and ability between the two hemispheres is considerable - and growing. Whilst the games in the Tri-Nations were played out at breakneck speed, with attacking and defensive skills at the highest level, the recent Six Nations was a ponderous, error-strewn affair and reached a standard of mediocrity rarely seen at this level of rugby.

'Whilst the games in the Tri-Nations were played out at breakneck speed, with attacking and defensive skills at the highest level, the recent Six Nations was a ponderous, error-strewn affair and reached a standard of mediocrity rarely seen at this level of rugby'


With little preparation time available for improvement, the challenge of the Northern Hemisphere sides in this year’s World Cup is looking limited. Current holders England go into the competition on a disastrous run of form, which has seen them plummet to seventh in the world rankings. Their only hope of retaining their world crown rests in their Group game against South Africa. Defeat could mean second place in the group and possible games against Australia and New Zealand. A victory, and topping the group, could place Wales and France in their path to the final. Realistically South Africa will prove too strong and England’s hopes will end in the quarter-final at the hands of their bitterest enemies, Stirling Mortlock's Australia.

France, on paper, are the only serious challengers to the Tri-Nation heavyweights. Home advantage, allied with the right mixture of Gallic flair and passion - plus what appears to be an easier draw in the tournament - could see the French meet South Africa in the semi-final, where either Australia or New Zealand will be waiting for the winners. Once again the Springboks will have the edge over their European counterparts and the Northern Hemisphere challenge will end in the semi-finals.

Ultimately the winners of this year’s World Cup will be either New Zealand and Australia, and with little to choose between the two teams, the mental game could decide the competition's outcome. On current form, New Zealand appear to be firm favourites but their performance in previous tournaments, away from home, has left them vulnerable. Their only World Cup win, in 1987, was on home soil. The recent defeat in Australia further highlighted their vulnerability on their travels and the Kiwis' “away demons” could pass the initiative to their closest rivals.

Australia, on the other hand, are experts in psychological preparation, and have the ability to perform at their best when it matters most. The 2003 defeat to England will only have acted as a spur and the Aussies come to France in peak condition, both physically and psychologically. It’s that mental edge which will give them the advantage and the Webb Ellis trophy.

So there we have it. Australia v New Zealand and France v South Africa in the semi-finals, and captain Mortlock to lead Australia to victory over South Africa in a closely contested final. All there is to do now is sit back and enjoy.

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