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Five reasons the All Blacks may not win the Rugby World Cup

New Zealand are clear favourites to lift the crown for the first time in 20 years, but they have a Thorne in their side (literally and metaphorically) and James Hutchison offers a glimmer of hope to supporters of South Africa and Australia in particular.

by James Hutchison on 29 July 2007

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Reuben Thorne: Mysterious selection (Gettyimages.com)

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For three-and-a-half years, many pundits have talked about the 2007 Rugby World Cup as being a one-horse race, such has been the dominance of the All Blacks since the 2003 tournament.

Since Graham Henry took over as New Zealand coach, he has implemented a plan that has seen him regularly rotate players in his squad, develop the most powerful forward unit in the world, and turn his men into fitter, leaner and stronger players than anyone else in the game.

The upshot is that the All Blacks now have two teams that can compete with any other nation. On their Grand Slam tour of Europe, Henry would make as many as 15 changes from one week to the next and they'd still win. Their first choice line-up is already head and shoulders above the rest, and they have the strength in depth required for the testing schedule of a World Cup.

'When England get knocked out of the football World Cup, the nation is sent into depression, and there is a downturn in the economy. For New Zealand it is worse, given that England's football team are never really expected to win anything'

Nevertheless, to lift the spirits of all the other rugby nations, here are five reasons why New Zealand's 20-year wait for a another World Cup title may go on.

1. Pressure from the New Zealand public: If the All Blacks do not win in France this year, there will be uproar at home. Henry will suffer the same fate as John Mitchell in 2003, and there will be sweeping changes in the team. Rugby to the New Zealand public means as much as football does to the English. When England get knocked out of the football World Cup, the nation is sent into depression, and there is a downturn in the economy. For New Zealand it is worse, given that England's football team are never really expected to win anything. That pressure could play on their minds in tight games in the latter stages.

2. Twenty years is a long wait: Everyone knows that despite coming close on a number of occasions, New Zealand have not won the tournament since the inaugural event in 1987. Every four years, the All Blacks start among the favourites, but disappointing defeats have left them with the unenviable title of 'The best team in the world between World Cups'. This stigma will add to the significant pressure from supporters and may contribute to their demise.

3. Easy group: Of all the top seeds, New Zealand have the easiest group. Scotland and Italy will be battling it out for second place, but neither will offer stern opposition for the All Blacks, and they will go through to the knockout stages untested. In the quarter-finals, there is a realistic chance they will meet Argentina (the Pumas need to beat Ireland to go through as runners up to France - a feat they achieved twice this summer), and even that game should not prove too much trouble. So New Zealand may cruise through to the semis, where they could face Australia, battle-hardened after a more strenuous route and determined to cause an upset against their local rivals like they did in 2003. New Zealand will need to beware.

4. Reuben Thorne: Why has Thorne been named in the All Blacks' squad over the more dynamic and versatile Troy Flavell? Is Henry cracking up already? Thorne will not be selected in the first-choice team, nor will he make any impact from the substitutes' bench and so his selection is mystifying. Henry will effectively have 29 players to choose from, and if the Kiwis have to rely on Thorne in the World Cup Final, they could be exposed.

5. Schalk Burger, Juan Smith and Pierre Spies: South Africa's back row is on a par with - possibly even better than - New Zealand's trio. If the Springbok loose forwards get the better of their Kiwi counterparts, they could starve the dangerous All Black backline of possession and kill their running-rugby game plan. Burger and Smith are brutally physical and will force turnover ball, while Spies has the pace and power to be a threat in attack. If the final is a contest between these two sides, the Springboks manage to keep all their players on the field and out of the sin bin, and Thorne lines up for the All Blacks, South Africa could sneak a result and lift the trophy.

Should all these factors combine, the All Blacks could fail once again in their World Cup quest. However, New Zealand's performance against Australia to secure the Bledisloe Cup and the Tri-Nations allayed fears that they were beginning to decline.

They remain overwhelming favourites to lift the Webb Ellis Cup, and rightly so. But let us all take solace that there may be a glimmer of hope for the other teams.

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Comments (13)

by elton willemse on July 27, 2007

1. They are a settled unit with depth in every postion . 2.The three critical postion in the team are filled by world class players. Richie,Dan and Macdonald at the back not even mentioning Collins and Reuben Thorne is not spectacular but he does what is required in the team. 3. They have best open-side flanker in the world who can steel a ball from any time. 3. They can adapt to any game plan or condition and reserve bench that can murder any team in the last few minutes to win the game. 4. Their fitness levels,ball skills and awareness of the game are head and shoulders above the rest. 5.The team are not about Reuben Thorne or any other player in that squad,it is 15 players that brings one blackwave 80 minutes long and not 70 minutes. The world cup is theirs to win and New Zealand can and will win, not because they are favourates,because they own to themselves and their supporters all over the world.Go Blacks !!!

by Idave on July 27, 2007

Just like to point out that the Irish side sent to Argentina this year was our second team inlcuding alot of new caps and we probably should of won the first game but lost it due to lack of experience. Our first fifteen is second only to the All blacks on current form at the moment and if you actaully seen us demolish South Africa & Australia in the Autumn internationals you would probably agree with me and not forgetting the anihalation of the current world champions aswell. France will be lucky to win the group as the current Irish side with a full team is superior if you ask me. People think this world cup is a for gone conclusion but it isnt there are a number of teams capable of beating the All Blacks Ireland being one of the few teams that could actually do it, cant wait for the world cup go Ireland!

by James Hutchison on July 27, 2007

Idave...I know, but it fitted better with my argument to just mention the result of the Ireland v Argentina series, rather than the context. I'll be cheering Ireland on (being half Irish), and their group will be the most interesting - I've actually got a feeling France could go out in the group stage under the pressure of their fickle supporters, Ireland to win the group and Argentina to surprise the hosts in the first match and sneak through in second. Realistically, I can't see past the All Blacks winning the World Cup. As Elton says, there are so many reasons why they should win - the most convincing is that they are the best team in the world, and they have such strength in depth. But, you can't discount any of the top teams and there are bound to be one or two upsets along the way - that's why it will be so good to watch.

by John Christie on July 27, 2007

The All Blacks can and should win but if it comes down to a tight finish - nothing is guranteed it could go either way and with it the title of World Champion. Most Kiwis probably feel nervous of a close finish due to the AB's recent history of loosing by a few points. Hopefully with Dan Carter and a very experianced the team can survive and win. Hope the AB's have learned not to throw 50/50 balls in tight games - Weepu did it (reverse pass) in the dying minutes of a recent test and if it had been intercepted the AB's would have lost.

by Delia Smith on July 28, 2007

I think the continued criticism of Reuben Thorne and what he gives to the All Blacks is a lazy rugby media cliche. Thorne is a workhorse that isn't flashy but adds a dimension to the team that Flavell certainly doesn't - and that is a cool head under pressure. He also offers experience and is a massive support to McCaw. These things may not be flashy, but every team needs a person like Thorne.

by Dave on July 29, 2007

It is true that ABs deserve to be clear favourites for the WC. Their achilles heel, however lies in their backline of all places. I have seen very few, if any set backline moves from the ABs this season. They only seem to be able to score through broken play through the backs. This means they are primarily feeding off errors. What happens if they meet a Bok or Wallabies side that doesnt make huge turnover errors on the night? The Boks have shown us time and time again that it is not sufficient to rely on errors and turnover ball to score tries. A side must be able to create through the backs, a dimension we are yet to see from the ABs. Obviously, this ABs side is far superior to anything the Boks have put on the park in recent years, but the fact remains that the ABs lorded backline may prove their undoing in the WC come the latter stages.

by James Hutchison on July 30, 2007

Dave - not sure about that to be honest. Dan Carter's back line is capable of finding gaps that aren't there. He and his centres are experts are darting into half a gap, and then popping off to the support runner that is always there. Their ability to pounce on errors is another dangerous string to their bow. As for Reuben Thorne - I agree he does a job, and is solid in defence (although could be exposed by the pace of someone like Pierre Spies), but Troy Flavell is more dynamic and can be used at lock. That said, Graham Henry knows the players better than I do, and obviously had his reasons for selecting Thorne. Only a few weeks to go - I'm very excited!

by Scott Donaldson on July 30, 2007

Reuben Thorne provides more than what most people realise. During the Crusaders golden run in the Super 14 his named was chanted by team mates despite him not even being captain at the time. He is rated so highly by his pairs, especially his Crusader mates. On paper he isn't as fast as Troy Flavell, but he is consistent. Troy Flavell has the ability to be better than Reuben Thorne, but consistency and leadership there is not contest. Flavell got his chance during the All Black locking crisis this year and was found wanting as an International lock which is disappointing after there was excitement at his early Super 14 performances. I think the Springbok and All Black loose forwards are so even. My concern with the All Blacks is Rod Soioalo's ability to be sublime most of the time, but he is prone to handling errors and remember his howler in Rustenburg last year?

by John Christie on July 30, 2007

Scott, Rodney is showing the best form of his life -in my opinion. We are seeing another 10% from him - is it his fitness?? Those scything attacking runs are the trigger (and so many of this AB team can do it) to start an All Black avalanche! For me - Rodney is safe (He could be heavier and he could be bigger but with Sione Lauaki waiting in the wings that is coming also.)

by Brad on July 31, 2007

Your right on Thorne he is useless hes just taking the spot of someone young he will be the worst player at the RWC. Schalk Burger, Juan Smith and Pierre Spies better than the all blacks backrow i think youve been smoking to much Smith isnt that good and Spies is useless he is seriously crap where was he against the kiwis and aussie this year didnt see him do anything very very overated big match players stand up in big games

by Brad on July 31, 2007

Your right about the pressure from the kiwi public as an ex kiwi you will find most of them live there lives through the all blacks because theres not much else to do in that country its quite sad when you go there i feel sorry for the players

by John Christie on July 31, 2007

Brad, You dont speak for me pal. NZ is a great country with plenty to do. Clearly you live your life through your own eyes! - so keep your comments about Kiwis to ur self!

by Wayne on September 25, 2007

Let the Kiwi public believe their own hype. Just provides more content for Aussies to remind them about after we have one. Shame though as they are the greatest Rugby nation on the planet year in year out. Just not where it counts.