Home > Rugby > Rugby World Cup poser: Can Wales shock South Africa - or Ireland beat the All Blacks?

Rugby World Cup poser: Can Wales shock South Africa - or Ireland beat the All Blacks?

Just six weeks to go and rugby fans are divided on who will bring home the William Webb Ellis trophy. The Southern Hemisphere giants are hot favourites - but the road to glory is a tough one.

by Hamish McBrearty on 29 July 2007

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Bryan Habana: Individual brilliance (Gettyimages.com)

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The Rugby World Cup starts off with pool play. Of the four groups of five teams, the top two teams in each pool go through to the quarter-finals, at which point the competition becomes sudden death. The teams to qualify from the first three pools look reasonably obvious, but Pool D could be topped by any of three countries.

Pool A features defending champions England, former champions South Africa, Samoa, Tonga and the USA. It is unlikely that the United States or Tonga will cause any upsets, but Samoa could give the big boys a bit of a surprise. That said, South Africa should top this pool, building on last season's win at Twickenham and this year's series win over England, with Brian Ashton's side qualifying as runners-up.

Of all four groups, Pool B is likely to offer the fewest surprises. Australia, Canada, Fiji, Japan and Wales will contest this pool and expect Australia to top this pool with Wales runners-up. Fiji are a world power in seven-a-side rugby, but that success has not translated into the 15-man version of the game, while Canada and Japan are clear second-tier teams.

'If the results go as predicted, then Australia will play England in the first quarter-final in a replay of the 2003 Rugby World Cup final'

There is a potential upset on the cards in Pool C. Romania and Portugal are just there to make up the numbers, while New Zealand will win this pool. The battle for the runners-up spot will be between Scotland and Italy. Traditionally the Scots would be favoured, but after their Six Nations win in Edinburgh, don't be surprised if the Italians finish second in this group.

The 'Group of Death' at this tournament is definitely Pool D. Georgia and Namibia will be demolished in all of their games, with two out of Argentina, Ireland or hosts France to go through. Argentina beat the Irish in a two-Test series earlier this year, but Ireland had left most of their best players at home - while France scraped home in this year's Six Nations on points difference over Ireland. France should win the pool, with Ireland second, but the Argentinians could easily upset either of these teams and claim a quarter-final spot.

If the results go as predicted, then Australia will play England in the first quarter-final in a replay of the 2003 Rugby World Cup final. The Australians should exact revenge for their extra-time loss in that game and move into the last four.

The next quarter-final is a real mouth-watering prospect as New Zealand may well take on Ireland. The All Blacks showed up a potential weakness in the Irish during the 2005 Lions tour, so expect Jerry Collins to run the ball straight at Ronan O'Gara all day, with the New Zealanders' superior fitness winning the day.

The Springboks should account for the Welsh in the third quarter-final, using their rugged forward play to starve Wales of possession. The last quarter-final sees hosts France play Scotland, or possibly Italy, in a game the hosts should easily win.

At semi-final time, France and the three Southern Hemisphere powers will be left, and no doubt the Northern Hemisphere media will be working overtime to excuse their poor showing and trying to figure out why the Southern Hemisphere teams are so much better.

The first semi-final will be between New Zealand and Australia, a game which the All Blacks should win. These teams have played each other so often over the past 12 years in the Tri-Nations that both will know what to expect. But aside from the slip up in Melbourne this year, the All Blacks have been dominant in this rivalry lately.

The other semi-final between South Africa and France will be decided by the Springboks' discipline. If they keep their cool, South Africa should be too good, but if the French get under their skin, as they are so good at doing, a Springbok meltdown could be on the cards. Having said that, I expect the South Africa to win this game, making the final a replay of 1995.

There is little to be read into the Boks' recent loss to the All Blacks in Christchurch, but their clash in Durban showed just how close this game will be. Both sides will use ultra-conservative game plays as one mistake could easily decide the game. There will also be a lot of goal kicking, and few tries will be scored, putting the pressure squarely on goalkickers Dan Carter and Percy Montgomery.

Both sides boast explosive players in their back lines, and it could easily be a moment of individual brilliance from Bryan Habana or Joe Rokocoko that decides the destiny of the Cup. Of course all that analysis can wait until game day, but the All Blacks, if they keep their composure, should finally end their World Cup drought and bring the William Webb Ellis trophy back home.

As has been seen in previous World Cups, once the quarter-finals begin, anything can happen. Could Wales knock out the Springboks? On their day, yes. Will the All Blacks falter against Ireland? It could happen - it did in 2003 against Australia.

Will France recapture the form that saw them topple the All Blacks in 1999? They might, and that is the beauty of sport. On any given day you will win or you will lose, and until the final whistle blows, both outcomes are still possible.

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Comments (10)

by Jessie on July 29, 2007

Thanks for such a well researched and straight talking preview of the cup. Great points made at the end as well, sport is unpredictable and that is why we love it! In saying that I hope your right in your cup winner prediction!

by Bill on July 29, 2007

On their day this Wales team has no hope against the Springboks, and that's coming from a Welshman. Wales do not match up well against dominant forward packs such as SA and NZ, but against Australia the Welsh forwards have a great chance of inspiring an upset.

by Louise on July 29, 2007

Good article!...Although I think its time that we all adit that Ireland are going to win the whole thing!! Ha ha!

by Dave Davis on July 29, 2007

Ireland have no hope against the all blacks. Hopefully it will be a 50 point win!!

by Scott Donaldson on July 30, 2007

I have such bad memories of the men in black floundering against the Wallabies in World Cup semi finals. It happened in 1991 and 2003. It is such a lottery when it gets to the knockout stage. The passion must be there from the men in black this time around.

by James Hutchison on July 30, 2007

I think there could be more upsets than you think. As an englishman, I'm very worried about Samoa in our group, and they will give the Springboks a run for their money - they could spring a surprise if South Africa underestimate them. The Welsh are capable of beating Australia, with home advantage and a stronger pack - but both should go through as you say. I should think Italy will beat Scotland - the Scots are messing up their preparations with the club v country row. Pool D - I can see the hosts capitulating in front of their very fickle supporters - Argentina will be fired up for the first game with nothing to lose, whilst France could crack under the pressure. I'd like to see Ireland win that group, with Argentina going through second - now that would be a World Cup surprise.

by Scott Donaldson on July 30, 2007

It is impossible to write anyone off in a tournament like this one. Because Pool Play is a romp for most top sides the tournament is decided over four games, a quarter final, two semis and the final. It means that the top sides just need to fluke two wins and victory is theirs. Compare this to football where it is difficult for fancied teams to make it through pull play. There are six possible teams with the Northern Hemishphere big three playing in their backyard bringing them back to the pack.

by John Christie on July 30, 2007

History suggest that Ireland wont beat NZ - but this is a human game. Ireland are an exciting side, their backs and forwards combine so well but whether they have the top end grunt to overcome an inform All Black side is the question - for me the All Blacks should have too much skill and maybe too fast for Ireland - especially if they can hit top form (then they will the tournament - in form SA or Aust would not beat this in form AB side)

by Ai Rui Sheng on July 31, 2007

Ireland have played the All Black B and C teams over the past three years and are yet to get near a team in black. England is better at cricket and Samoa will take them. Wales? Give me a break. How about this scenario? Pool A RSA Manu Samoa Pool B Australia Fiji Pool C New Zealand Italy Pool D Argentina France Quarters Australia v. France New Zealand v. Manu Samoa RSA v. Italy Argentina v Fiji Semis: RSA v. Argentina New Zealand v. Australia Final Argentina v. New Zealand

by Alex Schuster on September 07, 2007

Only worrying thing for the All Blacks is that they have not translated their clear favouritism into victory in the last four World Cups. If there were a prize for the most 'intelligent' rugby team, then Australia would win it hands down. They have played in three out the last five RWC finals, winning two of them. Though their team has never been as powerful or as filled with raw talent as the All Blacks, they are much more effective at extracting the optimum skill and brio from their players on the days of big matches. Their tactical 'nous' at World Cup time is second to none. So my prediction. All Blacks to choke for a fifth time in a row. Either Australia or France to triumph in a Paris final featuring both hemispheres.