Cast your mind back to the summer of 2003. Glorious sunshine, record temperatures and no footage of David Cameron wading in wellies through flood-damaged Gloucestershire – in fact, no footage of him at all.

The England Rugby Union team, under the guidance of Clive Woodward, were making their final World Cup preparations at Bisham Abbey. Having won the Grand Slam and returned from tour victories in the Southern Hemisphere, they had an experienced and devastating line-up that picked itself.

Those heady days are long gone. Now, with little more than a month until they begin the defence of the William Webb Ellis trophy, England’s fortunes seem to mirror that of the country's climate – very gloomy indeed.

'If England can overcome the Springboks, an easier path with one less game leads to the latter stages. However, once they come up against Australia or New Zealand, their tournament will be over'


Coach Brian Ashton still has 40 players in his squad. By August 14, he will have to announce his final squad of 30, a hard decision to make. It’s not a question of having too many great players to choose from, as in the past. Ashton’s problems stem from a lack of outstanding candidates in certain positions. Indeed, not one of the current squad would make it into a World Select XV.

Phil Vickery, Jonny Wilkinson and Jason Robinson are guaranteed to make the first XV, but beyond that it’s unclear.

England’s preparations for this World Cup have been disjointed. No consistency in selection, no clear pattern of play and unfortunate injuries have been the theme for the past year. The tour to South Africa, rather than providing answers to crucial selection dilemmas, threw up more. Is Matthew Tait strong enough in defence, does Andy Farrell have the turn of pace required to play in the centre and is George Chuter reliable enough under pressure at the line-out? Unfortunately for England, the answer to these questions is no.

Whichever players England select against the USA on September 8, they will win. They might even win with some style - but their World Cup fortunes hang on the pool game against South Africa. Both teams lack consistency in selection and results and the losers will be taking an early plane home.

If England can overcome the Springboks, an easier path with one less game leads to the latter stages. However, once they come up against Australia or New Zealand, their tournament will be over. Both sides have superior squads and back lines that will run riot against Ashton's men.

England can have a successful World Cup if expectations aren’t too high. They won't be lifting the trophy, but beating South Africa and possibly making the semi-finals will represent a good tournament. As with Woodward's team, patience is required if England are to win the trophy again. Remember all those calling for his sacking following defeat by the South Africans in Paris?

If Ashton has the confidence to select the younger, more promising members of the squad such as Tom Rees, James Haskell and Ben Foden, England's hopes for future tournaments will be much less gloomy. Who knows, we may even have an indian summer.

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