Home > Rugby > Rugby World Cup: The All Black storm will submerge France - no choke!
by James Mortimer on 24 August 2007
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First, the Wallabies beat the All Blacks for the first time since 2004, with a 20-15 victory in Melbourne (after 70 minutes of New Zealand dominance before a unlucky Carl Hayman sin-binning). After years of saying, "We're good enough, we're close enough", the repeated subliminal messaging finally seemed to pay off.
Secondly, everyone jumped on the bandwagon, Bob Dwyer, Eddie Jones, Bernard Laporte, Rob Andrew and John Connelly. This All Blacks team is on the decline, past their time, not so fine - they all say. Already peaked, while most Kiwis will agree the best is still to come.
Then Phil Kearns, the hooker who surely taught George Gregan his verbal arts, looks to drive another nail in the proverbial verbal coffin. His prediction - that the All Blacks are heading for an early exit to Argentina, Ireland or France.
What?
The first two teams have never beaten the All Blacks. Despite admitted closer results against these improving outfits, throughout history the New Zealanders have inflicted fearsome defeats on them.
And France. France, the tournament hosts. France, the Six Nations champions. They are currently on a nine-game losing streak against the All Blacks, with their last victory coming seven years ago. The combined scorelines of the last nine games reads NZ 346 FR 109. Ouch. In fact, since the millennium the French have suffered the three heaviest defeats in their proud history. Twice at home.
All of these defeats were inflicted by the All Blacks.
Chokers? I don't believe so. How does a team reach the semi-finals, lose to arguably the finest performances Les Bleus and the Wallabies have ever produced, and be labelled chokers (after being champions and runners-up in the three tournaments preceding these)?
Any Rugby purist will also agree that selecting first-choice fullbacks (Christian Cullen and Leon MacDonald) in the crucial defensive 13 position was Rugby World Cup disaster. Oh,
Will the All Blacks win this World Cup.? Yes. And I'll prove why:
The New Zealand side's last four years have been statistically the most successful of any team in history.
The All Blacks started the millennium poorly, in the face of the Wallabies golden age of 1999-2002. Yet since the turn of the century they have compiled 74 wins and 14 losses - a 84% winning record.
They have only ever lost to five of the current world playing nations. South Africa have the best winning percentage against them - 40.28%. Australia are second-best winning a whopping 29.69%. Host nation France, the All Blacks' other 'nemisis', have a 22.22% winning record.
Statistically, the All Blacks boast a +12.28 points differential over the last century. Next best are South Africa, with just over half that.
Of their first choice XV, Richie McCaw, Jerry Collins, Hayman and Daniel Carter would be guaranteed selections in anybody's current world team. Keven Mealamu, Chris Jack, Mils Muliaina, Rodney So'oialo and Tony Woodcock would all be close.
For the first time in a many many years, the All Blacks have assembled a truly great team, with the only real question marks still over unlucky 13. But they still have class players in Isiah Toeava and Conrad Smith. Look at any other All Black team in history and there have always been weaknesses (albeit covered up by abundent strength in other positions). Yet the records have still come.
Yes, New Zealand have won only one of these commercial World Cups. But I shudder to think how many titles would be on the Black fortress's mantelpiece if the tournament had been running for 100 years.
Please continue to doubt, say choke, say decline. Because this will only serve ultimately to create complacency, while the Black storm clouds roll into France to unleash a storm no one will resist.
Doubt at your own risk....
Comments (25)
by John Christie on August 24, 2007
Exactly; what a true analysis. Those are the facts. The facts also acknowledge that the All Blacks do get beaten but the facts establish they have MORE chance of winning than their opponents. Great work
by Ai Rui Sheng on August 24, 2007
Everyones getting desperate aren't they? I guess they realise that the AB's won the TN without hitting their straps and there is daylight between them and the rest. The Boks left their reconditioning too late and are demonstrating that in choirboy country. Ayatollah Laporte has resorted to drugs, the Welsh are hiding under sheep again, and the English, well who cares? After the RWC the Ayatollah will be in charge of a needle exchange program for the Tour de France. The final will be won over either the West Falklands or the Ayatollah's Goosers and will be by a margin greater than thirty-five points. The Criminals may not turn up, as they have been invited to parties on game days, sponsored by Japanese breweries and Colombian cartels.
by Mike Pickersgill on August 24, 2007
Statistics statistics statistics blah blah blah! If statistics dictated the winner of the RWC, England Australia and South Africa would not have lofted the cup. It is and always will be a mind game. If your team do not have overwhelming confidence in their ability to lift the cup, if they have doubts, they are vulnerable. I think history shows just how crucial self belief and belief in your team is.
by Jono on August 24, 2007
I agree with your comments but... it will only take one mental slip up like the one earlier this year in the tri nations to not finish the job, I have had my heart wrenched out four times before. I WILL admit that this is the best prepared team that I have ever seen but... they can not afford to lose focus for one second for the whole world cup, if they do this I am sure they will emerge not only victorious but put on the best display of rugby ever seen on this planet.
by Kelvin on August 24, 2007
Article is spot on. Based on player vs player it is obvious if the AB's 30 man squad split into 2 x teams they would play against each other in the final. Currently there is not a team that will get within 20pts of the AB's during RWC. Sth Africa will be runners up and Australia will only just pip the pumas for third. France will not make finals bowing out to Ireland and Argentina. Sthn Hemisphere rugby to show it's dominance by filling all 4 semi final spots. Wallabies still wannabies and need overated ex players mouthing off to build their confidence. Once again all hot air from a nervous team with afterhours problems.
A lot has been made of the win by Knuckles' Nobodies in the 3N. The All Blacks had just flown around the world and still dominated a game where the Witless Woozes were allowed to dive at every scrum by Plonker. He was so out of his depth that he penalised the Kiwis for collapsing scrums where the Criminals were all lying on the turf and the AB scrum was standing over them. The entire front row should have been carded, so the Plonker sent an AB off. Load of rubbish. The Aussies can sledge under water with apples in their mouths, and the whole world despises them as much as the Opium Pushing Slave Traders.
by Brad on August 24, 2007
I wouldnt take to much notice of Phil Kearns he is a moron i dont think he was that great of a player and his commentry is crap. For all the players and coaches saying the all blacks have peaked is a joke they are shitting themselves they know NZ were below there best and building towards the world cup but the world cup is a lottery its anyones game and by that i mean NZ, AUS, SA AND France can win on there day....no not Ireland they are no chance!
by John Christie on August 25, 2007
I've lost abit of respect for these ex Wallabies, especially for Eales with his remarks re the All Blacks. He is entitled to state his opinion and he sure knows more about rugby than most; but as this article proves Eales's remarks show that math is not a strong point for him. Farr-Jones being a lawyer provides a better summation ie We heard Farr Jones through the Tri Nations predicting NZ wins based on form (although he was wrong about Melbourne!)
by Jovan on August 27, 2007
by Derrick van |Wyngaardt on August 28, 2007
Let this Cappie tell the world that Australia perfected the art of sledge.Do it on the field JC!!!
by John Christie on August 29, 2007
Derrick, we have and we will! :)
by Patrick on August 29, 2007
As a kiwi living in london,I have heard alot of hot air from six nations supporters,media etc... This is the best ab side since 1987 and if they win the r.w.c the greatest team in the sports history..My only reservation is Henrys picking of the team when it comes to crucial matches,but at full strength and a self belief its one way traffic..This is team to be remembered not forgotten.
by stevie on August 30, 2007
in 95 i was confident we were going to win it, in 99 i was confident we were gona win it, in 03 i was confident we were gona win it. now come 07 im not. the all blacks will be the same they will go into the cup with a fresh mind and take it one game at a time, go the ABs.
by J2Battle on September 04, 2007
The All Blacks have more of a chance of winning this tournament than any other team in the world, slight edge over Sth Africa and Austrailia.Argentina,France,Ireland and England have a shot...but those four teams have to be playing above par if they are face to face with the All Blacks,and hope that the AB's are playing below average( it happens!...once in a blue moon)to have any chance. But rugby is a funny game,the bounce of the ball...referee interpretations of the laws...wind factor...referee interpretations of the laws...even what they ate the night before the game can make or break ( 95' final anybody...) The top teams will all be well prepared...but as the old saying goes....ON THE DAY...ON THE DAY...
by John christie on September 05, 2007
J2Battle - you make good points. I'm still picking SA NZ final! NZ have to be up to their best to win this one. Go Black!
by Lynn Mortimer on September 13, 2007
As an ardent All Black supporter living in SA I'm so tired of hearing the "choking" remarks. I keep telling these bolt heads that at least the ABs get to the semis/finals! I keep asking who bundled the Boks out of the last RWC. This is Richie McCaw's round with a group of multi-talented guys who know what has to be done - and who will do it, provided they don't have some dufus N. hemisphere referees and their incompetent SA lnesmen derailing the team along the way. Henry is a genius and RWC will prive that. Kia Kaha Blacks, you're the best!
by jimmy on September 16, 2007
all you AB supporters need to stop having a cry. during a world cup, New Zealand have never beaten Oz and its gonna stay that way. You all put way too much pressure on the kiwi's to win and they can't handle pressure. Richie McCaw's and Carl Hayman's tactics are illegal and that's why he got sent off in that tri nations game. Aus to win the world cup and New Zealand to lose once again
by John Christie on September 16, 2007
Hey Jimmy - Are you having a whinge about McCaw and Hayman? Harden up Aussie!
by Mark Talbot on October 03, 2007
Well, I am a very passionate All Black supporter, from Canterbury New Zealand, now living in Auzzie land. I think we can all expect alot from our teams no matter what nation you come from when it comes to the RWC. I would have to say that the last time New Zealand won the world cup I was only 12, and would dearly love New Zealand to win again. This time I have decided not to get too wound up about who will win and who will choke, and just enjoy the rugby of the world cup, there has alredy been some special moments for teams ; ( Argintina beating France, Fiji beating Wales) That's what the world cup is all about. Enjoy the rugby, and go the All Blacks.
by Danny on October 06, 2007
You boys choked better luck next time.
by Oscar on October 08, 2007
I am not sure to be able to understand the point in the article. If statistics determines who will win a tournament, then .. Why to spend so much time looking the games ... go fishing ... get a life ... and try to win next cup :)
by fontastique on October 11, 2007
How silent this discussion thread has fallen... You really all are a pack of pretentious low lifes... serves you well
by clivesalive on October 12, 2007
It's been a very enjoyable week- just read what you were writing before the 6th October!
by Unclebob on October 19, 2007
Did you hear that the New Zealand Post Office has had to recall their latest stamps. They had pictures of the All Blacks rugby players on them. People couldn't figure out which side to spit on.
by Big D on October 19, 2007
Ho ho ho ho ho ho ho ho ho ho - choking on your "analysis" now? (oops sorry, better not use that word to NZ's)