This is it.  Twenty  years of hurt.  Insults.  Enduring the fact that the Wallabies are two-time champions.  Being the historically strongest team in World Rugby, it all comes down to now. 

After the best four years of international Rugby Union that any team in history has ever accomplished, the All Blacks look to build towards what they hope will be World Cup glory.  Multiple Tri-nations titles, Bledisloes, British Lions whitewashes, Grand Slams, winning streaks over everyone, a world-record run of home victories - these will count for little without lifting the Webb Ellis Cup in Paris on October 20.

New Zealand's opening opponents, Italy, are finally beginning to reap the benefits of being included in the Six Nations.  Granted, there have been constant defeats, as expected when playing against the cream of the Northern Hemisphere.  Granted, they have lost 26 games since the last World Cup.  But they have taken the scalps of Wales, Scotland and Argentina over the last three years, and if not for some terrible refereeing, would have inflicted a tremendous defeat over the Irish only a few days ago.  The most apparent improvement in their game has been their scrum; with a heavy pack of forwards, they are beginning to learn the art of grinding opponents.

'Italy want to spring the biggest upset in the history of Rugby Union. They are match fresh, whereas the All Blacks will start slowly'


On paper, this is a terrible mismatch.  The All Blacks have met the Azzurri eight times and never lost.  They often play the Italians at World Cups, and rarely show them mercy.  Indeed, the men in black average 65 points per game - and at the 1999 World Cup posted a century against the hapless Italians.

New Zealand realistically holds all the cards in this match.  Superior forwards, better scrum, dominant ruck play, better kicking, faster backs, more experience, the list goes on.  The All Blacks will want to make a impressive point in this game, as they have stated recently that they intend to do all their talking on the field.

Italy, though, knows that while it will probably be more about damage control, they are not without hope.  They know they can compete at the set piece.  But beyond anything else, as much as New Zealand will want to make a statement, they will want to keep their aces close to their chest.  Furthermore, it is unlikely that the All Blacks will roll out their first XV, although this might be worse as fringe players will be playing for first-choice spots.  Remember that New Zealand have not played since the Tri-Nations, so there will be rust.

Why New Zealand will win: They will look to rack up a good score, and give their players a good run with Graham Henry likely to empty his bench.  No doubt both trump cards, Richie McCaw and Dan Carter, will play, but will be benched early.  New Zealand will play this by the numbers, and may even be a bit cute and try some new things out.

Why Italy will win: They want to spring the biggest upset in the history of Rugby Union.  They are match fresh, whereas the All Blacks will start slowly.  They have tremendous confidence after the Ireland result (they lost 23-20 to a controversial late try by Ronan O'Gara).  But this won't happen.  Even if the score is close, the All Blacks will have far too much class and weapons to let this one slide.

Players to watch:  Byron Kelleher is the All Blacks' senior halfback (scrum-half) and must play well.  With Piri Weepu at home, both Brendon Leonard and Andrew Ellis will be competent deputies, but cannot be relied to carry the service in a crunch game.  Kelleher must find form for this most vital of positions, especially considering the class of other international halfbacks.  It will also be interesting to see who turns out at outside centre.  For Italy, likely captain Marco Bortolami and the entire Azzurri pack.  If they can gain parity or advantage in the lineouts, this will be closer than pundits think.

Recent Results:

13 Nov 2004 Italy 10 - 59 New Zealand
11 Oct 2003 New Zealand 70 - 7 Italy
08 Jun 2002 New Zealand 64 - 10 Italy
25 Nov 2000 Italy 19 - 56 New Zealand
14 Oct 1999 New Zealand 101 - 3 Italy
28 Oct 1995 Italy 6 - 70 New Zealand 

Prediction: All Blacks not to play their strongest team, nor reveal itheir Cup-winning game plan - but too much power and panache will be utlised by the No.1 team.  New Zealand to win by 30-plus points.

Do Italy have any chance at all of making this a close game? Post your comments below or write an article of your own for Sportingo.