Home > Rugby > Can Australia or South Africa stop the All Black juggernaut?
by James Mortimer on 10 September 2007
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South Africa and Australia are the only nations to wield any form of success against this current All Black team. New Zealand remain unbeaten against Northern Hemisphere countries for over four years. In fact, they have only lost five games in 12 years to European teams - and their unbeaten records against Scotland, Ireland and Wales (since 1953) will not fall on current form.
The Wallabies hold a 4-10 win-loss record against the All Blacks in the last five years. The Springboks amazingly host a 4-14 record against New Zealand since 2000 (including three South African victories in the last four years). In the 1999-2003 World Cup build-up, the ledger was New Zealand 8, South Africa 1).
South Africa have the most in their armoury to not only halt the All Blacks, but keep enough gas in the tank for another good opponent as well. But New Zealand have the measure of this South African side even more than the Boks do on New Zealand. Being the only team capable of stopping the men in black does strengthen credentials, but most would put their money on the Blacks having the measure of South Africa, especially with their vulnerability with fly-half, defence open to counters, and a pack that cannot last the full 80 minutes against the superbly conditioned New Zealand outfit.
South Africa should did not lose to any significant opposition in their march of 2007. But while meeting the New Zealanders in the final beckons, they will win this tournament if someone else causes an upset (any team beating New Zealand will be an upset) - but will not likely stop a firing All Black team come October 20. South Africa have one of their strongest squads in memory, but they have been far from unbeatable and have their flaws.
The Wallabies will, as always, conduct a masterful assault on the tournament. They always do, and New Zealand aside, would be almost easy bets on the Cup if not for the All Black presence. While everyone remarks that the Wallabies could beat New Zealand in the semi-finals, what of the reverse? This New Zealand unit has the realistic measure of Australia, with only two losses in 10 games against them. Mentally it would be expected that the New Zealand scrum and loose would know that if push comes to shove, they have the steel on this confident, yet still raw Wallaby eight. New Zealand have more class in the loose and all set pieces bar the line-out. Man for man, Stirling Mortlock and his Australians are not as gifted a squad as these ball-playing All Blacks.
In recent results, the South Africa-Wallaby contests have been closely shared, with neither - bar Australia in that incredible 49-0 slaughter - having the measure of the other.
The Australian improvement has been solid in the forwards - and a fit back line is still served by its elder statesmen, most of whom would occupy World XV berths. They can beat any team in the world, but any team in the world can beat them in the right circumstances. They cannot further spook Richie McCaw and his New Zealand team. The All Blacks know well the Australian menace, but know they have enough power to repel all but the most awesome Wallaby assault, which they are not consistent enough to deliver.
There will be no romps in this eventual clash of the southern giants. They know each other too well. But all three great nations know that on basic statistics, player for player comparisons, sheer momentum and recents results, New Zealand have a 65 per cent chance of beating the Boks or Aussies on any given day.
Comments (9)
by John Christie on September 11, 2007
Both SA and Aust can beat NZ but only if the AB's have an 'off' day - when the AB's are on song they will still be 12 - 15 points better than anyone. The AB's will win this compeition
by Colin Freeman on September 11, 2007
At the moment both the Wallabies and the Boks are groups of excellent players. The AB however are an excellent team. In this game it is the team that wins. The Italians met a superb team working like a well oiled machine.
by Tim Goodman on September 11, 2007
This is probably the worst writing I've read in about 5 years. It's all complete nonsense. You don't have a point of view, and you say nothing. Please give me my 5 minutes back.
by fishboy on September 12, 2007
Tim Goodman, perhaps you need to work on your reading - perhaps moving past See Spot Run. The article is reasoned, articulate, and the point of view should be obvious to everyone - even if you disagre with it.
by William on September 12, 2007
Hey Tim Goodman, read the article slowly. The simple point of view is that AUST or SA our the only teams with a chance of beating the All Blacks and details the article relevent to this point. If you are so profound with your godly donated 5 minutes, come up with a better point whiner.
by Geoff Cooper on September 12, 2007
The Wallabies won the cup in 91,99 so are due in 07! The Wallabies improve in the cup and their never-say-die will threaten the favourites. Remember 03? Despite some losses to the Blacks, the latter may have some psychological difficulties with them.
by Leslie Young on September 13, 2007
James, good assessment. While the ABs can slip up when opposing either SA or Oz - the statistics arguement that it is more likely the other way around (so i agree with John Christie). If the ABs can not win then the question is who? In terms of SA and Oz - the concern is their winning away record, which is nowhere near as good as the ABs.
by Brad on September 14, 2007
If you dont like it tim goodman piss of.
by Deon on September 20, 2007
I live in Aus but hardly ever go for australia in any sport down right red necks. However All blacks only fear Wallabies and this is a known fact when it comes down to the world cup Australia's mental edge always outwits NZ skills I see Aus Sa final guranteed.
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