Of the four teams on maximum points after two pool games in the Rugby World Cup, three are from the Southern Hemisphere. As I write, all four pools are also headed by teams from south of the Equator, and a number of Northern Hemisphere countries who were thought to be contenders are now fighting for their survival.

So far defending champions England have been nothing short of disappointing, failing to claim a bonus point against minnows USA and then meekly capitulating to the Springboks. It is likely they will only need one win against either Tonga or Samoa to go through to the quarter-finals, but on current form they will be no match for their likely opponents, Australia.

Ireland were touted by many in the Northern Hemisphere media as genuine contenders after narrowly missing out on this year’s Six Nations crown. Instead, they were woeful in their two outings, blundering their way past Namibia and almost losing to lowly Georgia. They now must win at least one game against fellow contenders France and Argentina if they are to continue their campaign.

'It would not be a surprise to find all four semi-finalists from south of the Equator'


By losing their opening game in the tournament, hosts France have put themselves in a very difficult position. Their final two pool games against Ireland and Argentina are do-or-die affairs, although they may be able to afford one loss depending on other results.

By contrast, the Southern Hemisphere contenders, and by no coincidence, the Tri-Nations teams have all but assured themselves of quarter-final places. Australia and New Zealand sit atop their pools with a maximum 10 points, while South Africa have nine.

One more win from fellow Southern Hemisphere teams Fiji and Argentina would likely send them to the knockout phase and demonstrate how far ahead rugby Down Under is compared to their Northern rivals.

On form so far, it is likely that at least four, possibly five Southern Hemisphere teams will qualify for the knockout phase. The three or four Northern teams who make it through will have an extremely tough time advancing to the semi-finals - in fact it would not be a surprise to find all four semi-finalists from south of the Equator.

What can the Northern Hemisphere teams do about this? At this year's tournament, very little - but the biggest step they need to take is to develop their young talent. Stars such as Dan Carter, Francois Steyn and Matt Giteau have all burst onto the scene since the last World Cup, while players like Jonny Wilkinson and Ronan O’Gara have their best years behind them.

Whatever the cause, there can now be little doubt that the attacking and confrontational styles of the Southern Hemisphere teams are far superior to anything their Northern rivals can put out on the park. It is now too late for a rethink by the Northern Hemisphere teams to change anything at this tournament, but at least they will have four years to figure it out before 2011 in New Zealand.

What can the Northern Hemisphere nations do to catch up? Leave your comments below or submit an article of your own to Sportingo.