The All Blacks had an enviable record of 42 wins in 48 internationals under Graham Henry. They went into the World Cup as favourites and once again came unstuck at the finals. Unfortunately, Test match win-loss statistics hold no relevance in play-offs. The intensity in one-off showdowns is several levels above that of normal Test matches.

In sudden deaths, there are no tomorrows - only four more years. I believe the most telling statistic to look at is New Zealand’s winning record in play-offs. Since 1991, our play-off success rate is sitting at 50%. Our probability of winning three consecutive finals, which is what we need to do to win in a World Cup, is therefore a mere 12.5%. This is effectively one win every eight World Cups. To a long-suffering All Blacks supporter, it means the next win is probably due in 12 years time.

The tag of 'favourites' is the most unfortunate curse and, based on a 12.5% World Cup winning chance, totally unjustified. Because of this tag, supporters and media alike falsely believe that the All Blacks should win every World Cup, placing huge pressure on players. However, I don’t believe that is why we lost.

'In sudden deaths, there are no tomorrows - only four more years'


Players are professionals and they can, and should, be able to cope with this kind of pressure. The real problem is that the players themselves believe they are better than they really are. Going into every tournament, every generation of All Blacks believed they had an edge over their opponents that wasn't there. Every time they were caught out - and sadly every time there were no comebacks.

While commentators say the New Zealand team could not cope with pressure, they lacked composure or they simply choked, the real truth is that the All Blacks, though almighty and almost invincible in Test matches, are in reality a very vulnerable side in play-off situations. To win, they have to be more desperate, more tenacious than any of their opponents. They have to be more ready for a dogfight and they should never believe that they can outclass their enemies as a given.

As All Blacks supporters, we should give up our rights to expect our team to win at the next World Cup. In fact, if we win before 2019, we will have played above our expectations. All Blacks supporters should will our team to continue to live in the possibility of being World Cup champions, to play like champions and be committed to become the champions they know they can be. But we should be honest enough to accept where we truly are.

It doesn’t mean it is impossible to win the next World Cup; knowing where we truly are is a good start. But that alone is not enough. The other important aspect of the game is to learn from failures. Sadly we cannot do that if we continue to dish out retribution to coaches every time they fail.

Coaches and players alike learn an incredible amount during a dramatic failure. The NZRU should work to maximise those learnings, not to diminish them. Hopefully the review from the NZRU should give strategies to provide continuity, to deepen learning, and if necessary, a proper plan to introduce new coaching directions without giving up on the foundations that Graham Henry has laid.

Finally, I quote from Crusaders coach Robbie Deans: ''At this level, it is all a mind game. You need to maximise the experience of those, in terms of the individuals within the team, who have been there and experienced this type of play before. It is also important to maximise the collective preparatory experience by fielding combinations that are as well established as is possible."

What do you believe the All Blacks should do to increase their play-off win ratio - and, more importantly, their chances at the next World Cup? Post a comment below or submit an article to Sportingo. Twelve more years we wait.