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Super 14: Are New Zealand's heavyweights in for a South African Shark bite?
As Dan Carter is ruled out for six weeks with an ankle injury, the Crusaders still have it all to do. The first of two articles in which James Mortimer assesses the eight teams he sees as realistic challengers for the title.
by James Mortimer on 02 April 2008
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The Super 14 tournament is now at its halfway point and, realistically, the top eight teams will be the challengers for the title as anyone below them is more than a win outside the top four.
So it's these eight teams I'll be looking at in detail, starting with the current top four.
1. CANTERBURY CRUSADERS: 7 wins, 0 losses, +175 points difference
The six-time champions looked to be certainties judging by their early form when at full strength. However, injuries to arguably the world’s best player, All Black Dan Carter, and his supporting five-eighth, Stephen Brett, will weaken the world’s best provincial team.
Attack: The best attacking team in the competition by some margin. They have posted 50 points three times so far in the season. They are playing a territorial-based game plan backed by significant counter-attack mentality.
Defence: The second-best defence in the competition. They employ an aggressive pillar and ruck tackling based around a drift slide-style defence.
One to watch: Casey Laulau's form has earned him the All Black No.13 jersey. He has been more aggressive in attack and the leading man in the Canterbury drift defence.
2. NATAL SHARKS: 6 wins, 0 losses, +48 points difference
Last season’s runners-up are undefeated, but face a horror five-match road trip, of which no South African teams statistically have great success. They have used a forward-oriented style of play so far this season and showed their credentials when they outmuscled the abrasive Auckland Blues in the contact areas.
Attack: Their glaring Achilles heel. The third worst attack in the tournament despite having French international Frederic Michalak directing a backline with four Springboks. Their support and offloading have been minimal, something they will need to address if they are to challenge for the title.
Defence: The best defensive wall in the tournament backed up by ferocious counter ruck play and a scrambling defensive pattern. If their attack improves, their defence will make sure they continue to win games.
One to watch: Francois Steyn, possibly the biggest kicker in world rugby. He has been under-utilised this season with the Sharks unwilling to play the percentages. A freak talent, he is best suited to fullback where he can pin opposition in their territory.
3. AUCKLAND BLUES: 5 wins, 2 losses, +77 points difference
Have regained some form from their early-season might, ably closing out close games against impressive South African outfits. They have disclosed their weakness with immense pressure being put on them at ruck situations and being drawn into playing tight rugby. If Nick Evans can re-ignite the most intimidating backline in the Super 14, they will be hard to beat.
Attack: The second best attack in the competition and, if firing, a near-unstoppable beast. They have struggled when their quick ball is shut down. Nick Evans, who should challenge Dan Carter for the All Black No.10 jersey, needs to stay fit for the Blues to win.
Defence: The sixth-best defence indicates the problems the Blues have had against attack-oriented teams. Very strong, but a lack of defensive discipline in the backline has leaked some points.
One to watch: Jerome Kaino is looking to take the number six jersey of All Black hit man Jerry Collins with an impressive work rate and very strong running. Needs to focus more on ruck clearout to enable the Blues more quick ball.
4. WELLINGTON HURRICANES: 4 wins, 2 losses, +23 points difference
Their starting pack contains six first-choice All Blacks and they showed their quality by being the first team to effectively challenge the might of Canterbury. The real dark horse of the tournament, they can look tactically inept, then suddenly click and blow teams away.
Attack: Has been ominously quiet so far this season, with more handling errors than any other team in the tournament. Tactical decisions such as kicking rather than running need to be corrected which challenges coach Colin Cooper’s efficiency. Need to play with more structure, especially with such a powerful pack.
Defence: Surprisingly, the third best in the tournament, marshalled by their All Black trio of loose forwards. Their comfort with playing open, loose rugby is matched by their layered defensive pattern - they outscored Canterbury 10-3 in the second half of their game.
One to watch: Ma’a Nonu is potentially the best line-breaker in world rugby, but ill-discipline and a tendency to throw the odd loose pass has let his team down. A brutal defender, he needs to be put into open spaces far more often.
Rugby League, Rugby Union, Sports News
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