Right before the All-Star break of the NBA season, many websites started speculating on just who will win the NBA MVP. At the time the same names popped up everywhere, and there was a consensus that this year’s was a deep field of potential MVPs with five or six players truly being deserving of the honor.

Following a rash of injuries, some bad streaks and changes in form the MVP race has pretty much narrowed down to two possible candidates. What happened to the rest? Who are even deserving of at least one MVP vote? Let’s take a look at the candidates:

Those who have fallen out of favor:

Gilbert Arenas
MVP pros: Agent Zero is probably the most assassin-like player in the league. His size might say Point Guard or combo Guard but his game is all aboutscoring. Has had some incredible outings - hitting many game winning shots, scoring in bunches and leading his Wizards to an almost guaranteed top 4 seed in the east (although at this point this is mainly due to the Dwayne Wade injury and the NBA’s playoff seeding system).

Cons: Is he truly his own team’s uncontested MVP? The loss of Antawn Jamison has changed the whole style of the team. Shouldn’t the MVP dictate his team’s style? He has also been in a bad funk recently, and this has shown that he is still too one dimensional as a player to win enough MVP votes. Another strong case against him is his media rants. While these make him one of the best stories around the league, they do not help his chances of becoming an MVP.

Dwyane Wade
MVP pros: Dwyane held the Heat together with dominant big man Shaquile O’Neal out for much of the first half of the season. He also had to overcome bad play from many of the teammates that were supposed to take over some of the load left by an injured Shaq. Wade managed to keep the Heat’s playoff hopes alive, under the circumstances this alone has made him an MVP worthy player. Next to all of the commotion he has continued improving his game and his rise to superstardom.

Cons: A shoulder injury has ended his regular season abruptly. Despite all of the above and in spite of the injury, I still do not see how Wade could have truly been a legit MVP candidate. He still only made the Heat a borderline playoff team in a weak Eastern Conference. Don’t get me wrong, without the injury I would have had him in an MVP argument, I just think this is a strong knock on his case.

Chris Bosh
MVP pros: The leader of a Toronto Raptors team which has surprised everyone after a dreadful start. Bosh is a new brand of forward. He dominates the game while including his teammates, and he generally makes everyone around him play better. Rookie Andrea Bargnani said of Bosh, that his aura makes the whole team much more confident, and once you see him pull of a move on the court it fuels that confidence. Did I mention he has Toronto firmly in grasp of the Atlantic division title?

Cons: He plays in Toronto. It shouldn't be a negative, but the truth of the matter is if before the season you were to swap the Raptors franchise with the New York Knicks, then as a New York player Bosh would be generating some crazy MVP buzz. With him in Toronto most are not even aware of just how good he is. Plus he still is a little too young for an MVP title. He will definitely be in many future arguments.

Tim Duncan
MVP pros: The Big Fundamental is always at the least an honorary mention in the MVP race. By now everyone takes Duncan’s production as a given. He is so smooth on the court, that you don’t even realize how he is racking up 20 points. He is hands down the best low post player this season, and he has San Antonio in the playoffs as a top 4 seed in a very crowded western conference.

Cons: San Antonio has been on cruise control for much of this season. It is clear that every Spur regards any regular season award and title meaningless, and that their sole goal is to win the championship. Can’t help but feel that Duncan has deliberately taken a step back the past few years on the team to allow Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili to shoulder a bigger load.

Tracy McGrady
MVP pros: He was deferring to Yao’s game early on in the season, and when the Chinese Center went down with an injury, he was just as good in his old role as dominant scorer. McGrady has shown this season that he has matured into a player that will do whatever is necessary for his team to win. That could normally spell MVP. The fact that the Rockets did not miss a beat once they lost Yao for an extensive period shows that McGrady has indeed been the team’s MVP this year.

Cons: His recent remarks concerning safety in New Orleans for next year’s All-Star game have probably gotten the league’s attention in a bad way. Still, I do not think that this will be a factor in an MVP voting. We could probably go through all the negatives in his stats like Tracy is turnover prone, etc. but the truth is, he will not win the MVP because some players have played at a level he has yet to reach (although he is close to reaching it).

Kobe Bryant
MVP pros: When a player manages to evolve his game it is always a fantastic sight. Kobe was often criticized for being a one-man army, for being too selfish. This year he has transformed into the type of player that Michael Jordan was. He is the closest anyone has come to the greatness of MJ. He defends relentlessly his passing helps his teammates, he elevates the whole team’s play, and by the way, he has remained a deadly scorer as well. He has pretty much secured a playoff spot for a young, oft injured Lakers team in the tough western conference. Kobe has already racked up the All-Star game MVP title.

Cons: Somehow everyone expects Kobe to be superhuman. We do not see just how bad the supporting cast around him is. There is a very promising young center (Andrew Bynum) in the group, but with a slew of injuries to key starters there’s not much here. Yet I still see the Lakers’ recent slump as reason enough to have Kobe out of the MVP race. Silly me?

The MVPs:

Steve Nash
MVP pros: After winning the award for the past two years, Nash has not become comfortable in the regular season. He is producing his best season yet. He is playing much better than in any of his two MVP seasons. His playmaking has allowed a smooth transition back for Amare Stoudamire who missed all of last season due to a knee injury. The biggest testimony on how much Nash is worth to the Phoenix Suns: with him the team can barely loose a game, without him they are barely winning any.

Cons: He won the MVP award the past two years. Despite the fact that he is playing even better this year, it would be a downright miracle if he were to win it a third time. His defense is still somewhat questionable (although he has improved even in that department).

Dirk Nowitzki
MVP pros: Make no mistake - Dirk is worth just as much for the Dallas Mavericks as Nash is for his Suns. His game has evolved every season, and he is now at the point where many are calling him the most unguardable player in the league. He has added a tough inside game to his long range shooting and it has made him such a dominant force, that opponents are not deciding on how to stop him, rather they are choosing their poison. Go small against him, and he’ll take you down low, go big and he’ll shoot you off the court. The biggest improvement of them all is his shot selection. It was pretty good last year, this year it is awesome, it’s borderline perfect.

Cons: He has about the same bad reputation on defense as does Nash, and he too has improved in that department. It is tough to find any negatives with both him and Nash as they have clearly played at a different level than the others mentioned in this article.


Who will win the award? I would say unless something extraordinary happens Dirk has it wrapped up. My sentimental favorite is Nash, and in some way it really is a paradox that he has played worse in the seasons when he did win the MVP, and he will not win it this year, but having seen the past tendencies I just can not fathom Steve winning this once again.

In all fairness, both Nash and Nowitzki are equally worthy of winning the award. That means that as long as they select between the two of them, to have one lose out would be unfair. Yet you can't make a bad choice by picking one of them.