With the horrific injury toll, and the New England Patriots' apparent invincibility, the Indianapolis Colts look as good as done, but to count them out would be a little premature judging by what they did last season. Let me show you how they overcame the odds to win it all, and then make a case for why the Colts will repeat this season.

Prior to the 2006 season, when pro-bowl running back Edgerin James left to pursue the big bucks in Arizona, the Colts' running game was supposed to suffer. Instead they drafted Joseph Addai who teamed up with Dominic Rhodes and an already dominant offensive line to become one of the best running attacks in the NFL.  Then, after winning their first nine games, they proceeded to lose four of their last seven games.

More troubling was the run defense which allowed a league-worst 173 yards per game, including a 375-yard debacle against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Ironically, the Colts may have benefited from this slump, because the pressure to win the Super Bowl had lessened, and it forced coach Tony Dungy to rethink his defensive philosophy. 

'To steal a line from a Sheryl Crow song: No one said it would be easy, no one said it'd be this hard'


Stumbling into the play-offs they would face the Kansas City Chiefs and the NFL's leading rusher Larry Johnson. Understandably, many thought Peyton Manning would have to "light it up" in order to win. Conventional wisdom isn't always right.  Manning threw three interceptions and the offense spluttered, but the once-laughable defence held Larry Johnson to 32 yards on 13 carries. His worst output of the season.  

After taking care of business against the Ravens, they went on to face their own Goliath in the form of the Patriots.  Having never beaten them in the play-offs and trailing 21-3 at one point, doubt should have set in, but they made a miraculous comeback and won in a shoot-out.  Then, against the Bears, the defence once again shone, giving up just one touchdown in the team's first Super Bowl victory since moving to Indianapolis, proving many critics wrong along the way. 

Moving onto this season, things didn't start so well.  As is the case with free agents on a champion team, they become hot, and expensive, commodities. The Colts lost Super Bowl MVP... err... stand-out Dominic Rhodes, tight end Brandon Stokely, defensive stars Cato June and Jason David, among others.  And before training camp started, offensive tackle Tarik Glenn decided to retire.

Fortunately, the Colts had already drafted offensive tackle Tony Ugoh and he slotted in the Colts' daunting offensive line which didn't skip a beat.  Manning is still one of the most protected quarterbacks in the league. With Rhodes leaving, Joseph Addai relished in his increased responsibility, and the defence continued where they left off from last season.  

The Colts may have won their first seven games of 2007, but not without incident.  Wide receiver Marvin Harrison has missed the last four games with a bruised knee, Tony Ugoh has a bum shoulder, Dallas Clark suffered a concussion, rookie Anthony Gonzalez has an injured finger. That's only on offence. The Colts' season took the biggest blow when defensive end Dwight Freeney went down with a season-ending foot injury.  

To steal a line from a Sheryl Crow song; "No one said it would be easy, no one said it'd be this hard."

Fortunately, the Colts have a comfortable schedule, with four home games (three against division opponents) and three easy road games against the Atlanta Falcons, Oakland Raiders and the Baltimore Ravens.  This will give Dungy time to adjust  the defensive scheme to cover for Freeney's absence. 

After reaching the AFC championship game, the Colts' superior running game, speedy defense, and its full complement of receivers will be enough for them to overcome the near-impossible task of beating the Patriots, and they will go on to Super Bowl glory once again.  Are you prepared to count out the Colts again?  I'm not. 

To the court of public opinion, I rest my case.