According to my haikus, (which were graciously put on the Davis Cup's official website - see link) I went 75% in handicapping this weekend's ties. Good, but certainly not "Roger good" (and speaking of Federer, check out this theory by Peter Bodo that got more than a few people riled up). Of the two contests that didn't align with my predictions, one was a tough call from the start, while the other was a complete surprise:

The wild upset: Germany v. Croatia

The Chileans should look no further than the Germans to see what home-court advantage can provide. Despite what I thought would be an easy match up for the experienced Croats, they instead fell to Germany after only four rubbers. The hero for Germany was Tommy Haas, who is building on his very impressive 2006 season with an even better start this year. On Friday, Haas defeated Mario Ancic 2-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. After Benjamin Becker fell to Ivan Ljubicic later in the day, both watched their doubles duo of Michael Kohlmann and  Alexander Waske take down the highly-ranked Croats on Saturday - in straight sets no less. Going into Sunday, it was 2-1 Germany.

If you recall the haiku for this tie, it went something like this:

Croats love the Cup,
And Deutschland has little depth;
Experience wins.


Reading from top to bottom, it can be inferred that I picked the Croats to advance due to their tremendous experience in the competition. What I should have done was read each line separately, and I might have had the correct answer.

Experience wins.

Even the veteran Ivan Ljubicic doesn't have the credentials of Haas. The German is older by only a year, but besides that, Ljubicic's recent performances on the biggest of stages have been repeatedly questioned (see the two first-round losses at the last two Grand Slams). Certainly, a must-win rubber to avoid an early first round exit qualifies as well. The trend continued with Haas prevailing in straight sets, 6-2, 7-6, 6-4.

Germany will look to continue their run, and are probably favoured against neighbours Belgium. For Croatia, its back to the drawing board - which might be a clean slate after Ljubicic declared that win or lose, he was retiring from Davis Cup play after this year. The 2005 championship seems like a long time ago.

The mild upset: Chile v. Russia

Last week in Vina del Mar, after seeing the boisterous Chilean crowd support combined with the on-court actions of Nicolas Massu that I could easily describe as frightening, I thought that Chile's home advantage would surely be enough to pull them through. Throw the Australian Open runner-up Fernando Gonzalez into the mix, as well as notable omissions from the Russian team, and on paper it seemed that the defending champions would not only be knocked out, but would have to scrap just to get on the scoreboard. Amazingly, after day one, here were the results: Igor Andreev beat Fernando Gonzalez 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 and Marat Safin beat Nicolas Massu 6-3, 6-2, 6-2.

I'm not sure which result is more baffling - the fact that Gonzo lets Igor get back into a match after taking the first set, or Safin's total whitewash of Massu from the onset. In desperation, the gold medalists from Athens joined forces on day two, and took care of business against the same two opponents and the scoreboard read: Gonzalez/Massu beat Andreev/Safin 7-6, 6-3, 6-4.

This tie was not televised in the United States, but if it were, I'm sure you could have seen the hearts of the Chilean heroes pounding during the tiebreak. To lose a close affair is one thing, but to be swept, at home no less, would be a disgrace for Chile, even against a formidable Russian side. The many fans who counted on a Sunday turnaround were disappointed. Chile needed to sweep the reverse singles. Gonzo did his part in the fourth rubber, upending Safin in straight sets (6-3, 7-5, 6-4), but shockingly, Massu dropped his third straight singles rubber in a row on home soil, losing in four sets to Andreev (6-2, 6-1, 6-7, 6-4). Nicolas' "passion", which I mention in the poem, may have gotten the best of him in the decider.

Regarding Russia, I certainly felt they had a chance going into the tie, but I also felt that their backs were squarely against the wall. The clay court, usually a major handicap to travelling teams, proved not to be an obstacle for Safin and Andreev, both of whom have sufficient experience on the dirt. Most surprising to me was that it wasn't Safin who carried the team, but it was Andreev. Maybe I should have looked a bit more closely at his quarterfinal run at Vina del Mar, which was a great choice for a tournament to enter considering this tie.

In other action, Richard Gasquet made me proud by taking two rubbers for France as they easily defeated Romania 4-1 at Clermont-Ferrand. Belgium took out the Aussies in a close affair, needing a final rubber to win the tie after Lleyton Hewitt fended off Olivier Rochus (6-2, 6-3, 6-7, 3-6, 6-1). The Americans were never tested in Ostrava, beating the Czechs. I caught a lot of this on the Tennis Channel; seeing Andy Roddick look comfortable on clay was a rare sight. A Nadal-less Spain beat a Federer-less Switzerland; they now visit the U.S. in the next round. Sweden and Argentina advanced as well, taking out Belarus and Austria, respectively.

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