It’s time for the first Masters Series event of the year and the men are ready – all top ten players are here. The women? That’s another story. Justine Henin, Amelie Mauresmo, and Kim Clijsters are staying home. It’s understandable given that Indian Wells is a two-week event followed by another two week event, Miami, and Miami is required attendance for the women.

But there’s another way to look at it. Henin just completed the “Emirates swing”: consecutive titles in Dubai and Doha - two very rich tournaments on the other side of the world from the desert town of Indian Wells. Doha has just announced that it’s doubling its prize money next year and that will make it the richest Tier I tournament and will put it ahead of Indian Wells.

There are currently too many tournaments and too few top players to go around, but this example tells you why it’s unlikely to change any time soon. Tournament directors don’t want their tournaments taken away, the president of the ATP, Etienne de Villiers, doesn’t have enough clout to take them away, and the players won’t give up huge paydays.

I took a lot of criticism last week for daring to suggest that round robins are a good idea but here you see a problem that round robins help solve. If you’re a small tournament and you only have one or two top twenty players, round robins keep those players in the tournament for at least two matches and help you market the event.

Speaking of Dubai, Roger Federer spends a lot of time in Dubai and owns property there, but Kristian Pless is the first player I’ve seen who actually calls it home. And now I see why. Just like Monte Carlo (the usual second home for tennis players), Dubai does not charge individual residents income tax. Pless is from Denmark. If there are any Danish readers, how do the tax rates compare to the rest of Europe?

Justin Gimelstob is in the draw. Didn’t he just have back surgery? Wasn’t he retired?

I’m tempted to put Sam Querrey past Nikolay Davydenko because the Russian has never gone past the third round at Indian Wells. Davydenko is a good returner but what the hell, Querrey is winning 86 percent of his service games so I’ll take him. That means I have Querrey through to the quarterfinals, and it could happen.

For statistical geeks, check this out: If you’re wondering who’s the best all court-player not called Roger Federer, click here and look at Tomas Berdych’s core ratings on all five surfaces. Core ratings tell you how good a player is on a particular surface by considering such factors as won-loss record and quality of opposition. Berdych is good but Novak Djokovic goes one better. Look at his core ratings.

Djokovic should get the quarterfinals where he’ll meet James Blake. The American is not an all-court player but hard courts are his specialty. He made it to the final here last year and lost to Federer. This year he will probably run into Federer in the quarterfinals.

Mikhail Youzhny has been a monster this year. He already has two finals, a semifinal and a title. Which brings up the following problem: his likely second round opponent, Sebastien Grosjean, has beaten him all four times they’ve met. Normally I’d go with head-to-head record but Grosjean hasn’t beaten anyone this year so I’m going with Youzhny.

Picking top flight hard court events this spring has become an exercise in figuring out who will take out Rafael Nadal, because someone usually does. At the U.S. Open it was Youzhny. Last week in Dubai it was Youzhny. Unfortunately for Nadal, Youzhny is in his eighth of the draw and could do it again.

What has happened to Nadal? He hasn’t reached a final since Wimbledon last year. If he is just as strong on clay this year as the past few years, then we’ll know the problem is court speed. Players have figured out how to beat Nadal on fast courts. Nadal recently said the problem is not his tennis, it’s his mental consistency. If he falters on clay too, then he’s right.

David Nalbandian has continued to stagnate. He has a losing record for the year. Is his interest waning? I don’t think he’ll make it past the third round.

Fernando Gonzalez has the most interesting quarter of the draw. He could meet Tommy Haas then Andy Murray. Gonzalez beat Haas at the Australian Open and Indian Wells is pretty fast so I’m choosing Gonzalez again. Murray is improving rapidly and should take out Gonzales before losing to Federer in the semifinals.

The other semifinal should be a U.S. Open rematch: Andy Roddick and Youzhny. I’d love to take Youzhny but he has a terrible record at Indian Wells and has lost his last three matches to Roddick.

Final: Federer-Roddick XV. Current standings: Federer 14 - Roddick 1. Need I say more?

For the draws and my picks in those draws, click here.

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