The final in Hamburg is the one that most people were expecting, but I doubt many of them thought that both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal would have so much difficulty in advancing past their semi-final opponents.

In the first match of the day, Federer dropped the first set to Carlos Moya 6-4. The way Roger was hitting some of his forehands (long) brought back memories of his most recent defeat to Filippo Volandri in Rome. But Federer came back in the second set, thanks to better shot-making and serving, but also, thanks to some emotion.

This match was one of the few times recently that I’ve seen Roger so animated (most notably in regards to a call in set three), but in doing so, I think it got him more focused on the task at hand – winning. He needed to remain focused, especially after losing five straight points when serving at 5-3, 40-0. The break of serve was potentially disastrous for Federer, but he immediately returned the favour by breaking Moya in the next game.

Roger’s backhand and net play was superb, which helped him escape set two. These positives carried over into the final set, where Federer had the advantage of serving first, as he closed out the second set with a break of serve. After five games, Roger got the ultimate break he needed, and in the easiest set of the day, Federer went on to win 4-6, 6-4, 6-2.

By comparison to the first set of the Moya/Federer match, Nadal’s first set against Lleyton Hewitt was rather uninspiring. The Spaniard was quickly down 5-1, and went on to drop the first set two games later. Soon the Hamburg final was looking like a rematch of the 2004 US Open final, instead of the customary Federer/Nadal clash. But, just as Federer had done on the same court not too long before, Nadal stormed back to win the second set 6-3, and the third 7-5. Check out how the end of the third set unfolded (per Associated Press):

Nadal, No. 2 in the world, appeared in trouble when he dropped his serve to allow Hewitt to level at 4-4 in the third. But Nadal broke right back at love, whipping a tremendous crosscourt backhand winner. Serving for the match, Nadal climbed out of a 30-0 hole, only to see Hewitt hit a forehand winner. Hewitt earned the break when Nadal's forehand went wide and the match was tied again. Nadal broke serve again and served out the match, but not before saving two break points.

Back and forth, huh? Even though Nadal’s clay-court match win streak didn’t come to an end, non-tennis fans should have taken some interest in this match, especially considering that Hewitt’s name was involved as well. But Sunday’s final is what really could get tennis some national attention – not that I deem it necessary – but it would be nice to have some major build-up in the US towards the French Open.

Last year, I made some sort of name for myself when I picked Federer to beat Nadal in Monte Carlo, Rome and at Roland Garros. We all know how those turned out. But I’m going to go back to the well once more, because of one word - pressure. I’m not referring to the pressure on Nadal of defending his clay win streak and remaining undefeated against Federer on dirt. Instead, it’s the pressure that Federer won’t feel.

Starting back in Indian Wells with Federer’s first loss of the year to Guillermo Canas, each successive match he has played in has come with more pressure to win. Roger, of course, doesn’t want to keep losing, but it happened in the next three events he played in. The problem for Federer has been that there is undeniable pressure that is put on him from the fans, himself and the opponent – and if he doesn’t win these matches where he’s the unequivocal favourite (which is 99% of the time), the pressure only compounds itself.

However, there is one instance where Roger isn’t the favourite – when he plays Nadal on clay. Federer will have a chance to play the role as the underdog, with the pressures somewhat diminished. If he wins, it sets up quite a discussion heading into Roland Garros. If he loses, well, that’s sort of expected by now when he plays against Nadal.

One aspect of Hamburg that hasn’t been brought up often this week is that Federer has won there three times. He’d love to add a fourth Hamburg shield to his collection, and he’d certainly love to go into the French Open by giving Nadal something to think about – not just Federer. The main thing going for Roger is, he can try to do this without the great pressures that have weighed on him of late.

Roger Federer is the underdog, and I think he will embrace it and finally defeat Nadal on clay on Sunday.

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