Home > Tennis > Why Roger Federer's days are numbered - and Rafael Nadal will become world No.1
by Ed McGrogan on 12 June 2007
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On my weekly 'Monday Net Post' column at www.tennis.com, I mention my shining star of the week on both the men’s and women’s tours in my 'McGrogan's Heroes' section. The obvious choice for this past week is of course the now three-time Roland Garros champion Rafael Nadal. Here is what I had to say about him: “Rafael Nadal was cool and collected throughout the French Open final against Roger Federer, even during the second set that went to the Swiss. The slight case of nerves that reared itself when serving for the first set in his semi-final match against Novak Djokovic (on two occasions) never made their way to Court Philippe Chatrier on Sunday, as Nadal was in top form throughout the duration. In spite of his loss at Hamburg to Federer and the months of preparation leading up to this match by the world No.1, you never for one moment got the sense that Nadal had relinquished control of the match, or his grip as the undisputed king of clay. Nadal's accolades on the dirt are some of the finest in tennis history - for the last three years, he's won Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome, and Roland Garros; four of the most prestigious clay tournaments in the world. But as each year has progressed, he's improved his abilities on other surfaces. Non-believers and casual sports fans need only look to Wimbledon 2006 (finalist) and Indian Wells 2007 (champion) for proof - and this doesn't even consider his victories in the Montreal and Madrid Masters in 2005. With age on his side and Federer nearly five years his senior, the No.1 ranking for Nadal seems to be an inevitability.” There are three things from this passage that I want to elaborate upon in further detail: 1. “In spite of his loss at Hamburg to Federer…” Hindsight is clearly 20/20, but I think that two comments that were posted on my last entry are very accurate in retrospect. Both 'more axe' and 'kat' suggested that the Hamburg victory for Federer over Nadal needed to be regarded as a completely separate entity when assessing Roger’s chances of upending Rafa at Roland Garros. Some valid reasons that were mentioned included the best-of-three-sets limitation, the far slower clay, the fact that Federer has had much success at Hamburg, and that Nadal had played many more clay matches than Roger had up to that point.
When you look at these facts, for lack of a better word, it’s obvious that the French Open is a 180-degree difference in terms of the type of match being played. In Sunday’s match, we saw that the Spaniard, and not the Swiss, adapted to these conditions much better.
As for Federer, you seemed to get the feeling that the mental game was still not all there, which translated into missed shots, unforced errors and an inability to come through when it mattered most (going 0 for 10 on break points in the first set ring a bell?)2. “…for the last three years, he's won Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome, and Roland Garros…” I had to mention this incredible statistic once more because Nadal accomplished what I previously dubbed the 'quadruple trifecta'. What’s the only way to top this? Win four different events four years running. In fact, I already have the name for it – the 4x4.
Another interesting remark about Nadal’s amazing consistency on clay was mentioned by Federer during his post-match press conference: Question: On which part of his game has he [Nadal] progressed most as compared to last year? Federer: I don't think he has made any progress. I always feel if he was to change his game, he might stop being able to win on clay. So I think he needs to keep this game because with this specific type of game, he's just unbeatable on clay. I've defeated him once, not at the most important moment, but in Hamburg. And that sort of leads into my next point –
Comments (43)
by Paul on June 12, 2007
Roger will fight back and win Wimbledon and hold onto his Number One spot and hopefully smash Nadal to pieces in the process!
by Patricia on June 12, 2007
I just read your article that Federer's days as No. 1 are numbered with Nadal on his heels. I agree that Nadal is a master on clay, but that's the point....on clay. When Nadal can make winning runs on the other surfaces only then will I even come close to believing Nadal will surpass Federer. While Federer stays healthy and is playing, Nadal will continue to be in Federer's dust. Nadal's chances of becoming No. 1 will only come when Federer decides he has accomplished all he wishes in terms of tennis titles.
by Ryan on June 12, 2007
Just some time back before the french open there was an article with the title something like Why roger federer will turn out to be the greatest player ever? Now that he didnt win the french y'all turned it around and now you're saying Why nadal will be the greatest player ever....it's SAD to see how people lift you up for one moment and drop you down hard the next........
by pechmerle on June 12, 2007
Nadal doesn't have every shot for every surface. Notably, he lacks the blistering serve needed for hard court. Federer woefully failed to take advantage of Nadal's slow serves at Roland Garros. But he could have: all but a few of Nadal's first serves were slower than most top players second serves. I admire Nadal's fire and hustle as much as anyone. On clay he clearly has no equal. But it doesn't fully translate to other surfaces now. I'm skeptical that it will in the future.
by Jonathan on June 12, 2007
I agree that Nadal will eventually take over number 1 but only if his body holds up first! His intensely brutal and physical style of play means he has to work twice as hard to win points as Federer (and Djokovic for that matter) and that means injury is on the horizon. He's only 21 and has suffered so many already. History has shown that no one can grind out point after point, match after match, without eventually breaking down mentally or physically. It happened with Borg, Courier, and Kuerten, it will probably happen with Rafa too. He cannot play this way forever and expect a long career, no matter how big his muscles are!
by Gigi on June 12, 2007
No one can be great all the time. Federer has to win the French Open just one time to prove he's the best ever. How many titles does Nadal have to win to match the FedEx?? Countless. It's like comparing apples and oranges. May Federer reign for long -- he has brought grace back to the game of tennis.
by Lucy on June 12, 2007
Why do people always say the French Open is the only GS Federer hasn't won? What about the fact that the FO is the only GS that Nadal has won? And sure, Nadal might be world No.1 but what about such players as Djokovic, Gasquet and Murray? These players aren't as physical as Nadal and so will last longer on the tour. I don't think Nadal will last more than 3 or 4 more years without succumbing to injury. THAT is what is inevitable. And even though Nadal just beat Roger, the gap between the two is massive - 2290! Roger will stay atop the rankings for ages- and even if he eventually does surrender his position, his fans are so loyal that that will not matter. Just have a look at the posts on rogerfederer.com. Eternally optimistic - unlike you!
by raj from india on June 12, 2007
For sure nadal will overtake federer within a short time.Nadal contrary to what federer has said,surely improved his game,for Example his backhand has improved tremendeously.Most of the federer devotees try to pull down nadal anyway possible.But Nadal always proved them wrong.Thanks for the positive article about nadal.We expect such articles in future also.
He's already made it to the finals twice and lost to perhaps the greatest claycourter of all time. He would likely have beaten anyone else in HISTORY. Compare that to Pete who never made a final in 13 tries. So by making it to two finals, Roger has already proven his worth on clay and doesn't need to win it all in my opinion. If he surpasses 14 slams, he gets the title in my book, no matter whether he wins the French.
by Ed McGrogan on June 12, 2007
Hi everyone – Thanks for all the comments so far; a few responses: - To Ryan: I’m not at all saying that Nadal will be the greatest player ever, I am saying that Nadal will be the one to overtake Federer as the #1 player in the world. And just to add to that, I certainly feel that Federer will be (if he’s not already) the greatest of all-time, with or without a Roland Garros crown. - To pechmerle: The reason I feel that Nadal has every shot in the book required to compete for Grand Slams on non-clay surfaces is that he’s already proven he can win at very prestigious hard court events (he’s won four different hard courts Masters), and he’s made the finals at Wimbledon. His serve isn’t a bullet by any means, but that doesn’t render it ineffective, as his trophy case proves. - To Lucy: I do want to go on the record and say that I am a Federer fan – in fact, probably more than most. I own his entire 2005 U.S. Open ensemble (blue & yellow shirt/bandana), as well as a framed and signed photo/bandan
photo/bandana piece. He’s a huge reason why I follow tennis so closely. But in my writing, I try as much as possible to stay objective. I would like to see Federer remain the #1 until he retires, believe it or not. However, what I’ve seen from Nadal of late suggests (to me at least) that he will – at some point – be the world #1. Thanks again for the read and keep your comments coming. - Ed McGrogan
Nadal has won three hard court Masters, not four. In 2005 he won at Montreal and Madrid, and then this year won at Indian Wells.
by WJMc on June 12, 2007
Nadal will eventually become #1, but I think that Federer will stay on top at least 2 more years, unless this loss at Roland Garros took the core of his heart. He pressures himself too much for RG and it showed. In the past year, Federer has begun to make uncharacteristic errors. So partnered with his internal pressures and nerves, the errors MULTIPLIED.
by Zola on June 12, 2007
Ed. this is a nice entry. what I like most is that you say Nadal has every shot in the book , just like Federer. This used to be only Federer's teritory. Maybe in another article you can elaborate on Nadal's shotmaking skills. Still, I see many articles or comments that call him"grinder" or "clay courter". As for HAmburg, Hewitt said it best after playing Rafa in RG. He said the clay was completely different and the clay in RG suits Rafa. Balls fly everywhere....After that I was more confident that Rafa will win. Besides Rafa was the more consistent player during the two weeks. Never had a scary moment. With Federer, he did have some. I also think that one day Rafa will be the world No 1 and if he can adapt his game to the hard courts ( and stays healthy), he has a better chance of being the GOAT. 21, 3 grand slams and 22 titles. A phenomenon just right now!
by timwashu on June 12, 2007
Nadal does NOT have Federer's arsenal of weapons. Not even close. Nadal is good on slow surfaces, and an occasional hard court. Nadal can keep winning clay tournaments, and Roger can keep winning everything else....just like it has been for the last four years....and the Fed will continue to lead the ATP pool by over 2000 points....just like always.
by Frances Ross on June 12, 2007
Dear Sportingo, You need some classier writers.This building one champion up and knocking another down is so trashy.Neither Roger nor Rafa would condone it.They are leading a revolution greatly needed in the world, of mutual respect of each others capabilities.There's room for many champions of different kinds and Roger and Rafa seem excellent models of this fact.Time to raise the standards of journalism to match a new era.
by Fred on June 12, 2007
Nadal is a great player and I like his enthusiam & humbleness much more that Federer's arrogance. Let's face it Federer said he was in better shape than Nadal? LOL! That final was federer's to lose not Nadal's to win. 48% first serves and 1/17 conversions on break points is why Federer lost. The moment was too big for him & he choked. You really can't compare the 2. As long as Federer doesn't let this loss get inside his head he'll be back & he will win the French. I don't even like the guy but you can't deny talent.
by Amber on June 12, 2007
Somebody thought they were correcting you by posting Nadal had only won 3 titles....it's 4... Madrid, Montreal, Dubai and Pacific
by truetothetest on June 12, 2007
Sorry....your analysis is way off, but I suspect you have taken this stance for the sake of controversy -- perhapts to light up your blog with lots of comments?? You have conveniently forgotten the other players in the ATP tour in your one-dimensional assessment - while Federer has one achilles heel, Nadal has several more in the names of Youzhny, Berdich, Hewitt, Blake, etc. (and Djokovic is steadily on RN heels!). Yes, Nadal intimidates on clay, however, these guys are dialed into him on any other surface -- I repeat, on other surfaces he has more than Federer to worry about! These guys are NOT afraid of Nadal when they face him and so to challenge Fed he better deal with these -- that's a lot more on his head than that which troubles Fed. Roland Garros' final was lost psychologically by RF -- Nadal was not dominant in the early sets of the final as he had been in the early matches of the tournament (perhaps doubts from Hamburg creeping in...?), whatever the situation, it was clear -- had RF executed a
Amber: I posted that correction myself. I was only referring to Masters Series events; Dubai is an International Series. Frances Ross - You can disagree with me if you like, but I don't see how my response is "unclassy". I focus almost the entirety of my text on Nadal, and not the fact that Federer came up short again. I simply feel that over time, which may be Federer's enemy, Nadal will at some point emerge as the world #1. I'm not discounting Federer's talent at all.
truetothetest - If I was looking to create controversy, I could have picked something for more devisive than this; I actually feel that many observers agree with this statement. Nadal has proven he can win big events on non-clay courts, and against the current ATP top 10, who would be his competition in the top tier of the rankings, he has a winning record against 8 of the 10, aside from Gonzalez (3-3) and Blake (0-3). As for players like Berdych, Hewitt, and Youzhny - Nadal has records against that that are 1 match under .500 at worst - it doesn't compare to Federer's 1-6 record against Rafa on clay. The ultimate point I want to make is that OVER TIME, I feel Rafa will emerge as the world #1. Federer may not relinquish this for a while, in fact.
by zola on June 12, 2007
Ed, I see you have turned the heat on yourself with this article. I wote my comment earlier, just looking again atthe comments I can't believe how many people wish Nadal injury or an early exit from tennis? I guess tennis has become more of a personal identification issue than a sport! what a shame!
by T.K. on June 12, 2007
Mr. Ed, it's good you write this article because so many people can send their comments to you. I've read all before deciding to write too. I noticed that every time 'Roger' beaten by someone esp. Nadal, you always try to let people to think that it's time for 'Roger's era to stop, and push nadal to be. Only one lost from clay make you believe that! Every tournament, I notice, would like to watch no1 plays with no2 in the final. It's good but you have to see the draw for both players. Last year in wimby, if you remember, Nadal's draw was so smooth to final as the officials try to take 'Roger' from his crown, and many many messages from furious people around the world sent to wimby, remember?! Again in Hamburg, before final 'Roger' had to play with four best players on clay. He is the no1 who could play the best on clay, the court 'Sweet Pete' had never been succeeded. Now if you see at Artois Championships, Nadal's draw is so easy again. This can show that the officials of the tournament needs him to be cham