A number of people have been asking me about my predictions for the US Open. Since I won’t be around too often during the tournament, this seems like a fine time to speak on these matters.

The first semi-finalist should be Roger Federer, for obvious reasons. The three-time defending champion has handled Andy Roddick every time they’ve played, and even when it was close (2006 Tennis Masters Cup), Federer still emerged victorious. You only need to look at the 2006 US Open final and the 2007 Australian Open semi-final to know my feelings on how this inevitable quarter-final will play out.

Also, I’m glad I didn’t put a side bet on Richard Gasquet to win the Open…he’s in this loaded quarter of the draw as well.

'Speaking of Nadal, he’s in the final quarter of the draw. I’m picking him to emerge from it, but the possible third-round match against Dmitry Tursunov has me worried'


James Blake should best his US Open quarter-final appearances this year, as he’s my pick for the second semi-finalist. There are many reasons why I think it will be James’ time to shine. Consider the seeded players in this quarter: the top seed is Nikolay Davydenko, whom Blake easily despatched in Cincinnati (he’s also 6-0 against him). Andy Murray is still injured. Nicolas Almagro and Fillipo Volandri do their best work on clay. We haven’t heard from Guillermo Canas since Indian Wells and Miami. Tommy Haas always goes far in Grand Slams, but not that far. The only opponent for James that I’d be worried about is Marcos Baghdatis, but if they meet, Marcos will fall just like last year – amidst a heavily partisan crowd.

Today at the Pilot Pen tournament on ESPN, Patrick McEnroe, Chris Fowler and Pam Shriver did some forecasting for the Open, with many of them picking Lleyton Hewitt to either emerge from this half of the draw, or at worst, be a very viable dark horse. I’m still not sold on Hewitt making a big splash. Sure, he won in Vegas this year, but that’s his only title since June 2006. In addition, he hasn’t reached the semis of a major since 2005. Lleyton might make it to week two, but not to the end of week two.

Instead, I like Novak Djokovic to take down this quarter. The analysts had a good point about the Serbian – this is the first time in a Grand Slam that he’s really expected to go deep. Many like Djokovic over Nadal in this half of the draw. Considering what we saw in Montreal, it’s tough to disagree.

Speaking of Nadal, he’s in the final quarter of the draw. I’m picking him to emerge from it, but the possible third-round match against Dmitry Tursunov has me worried. Remember, he lost to Mikhail Youzhny – a Russian with a similar game to Tursunov’s – here at the Open last year. Once again, it was a quiet summer for Nadal on hard courts, so there is some trepidation in penciling Rafa to play Novak in the semis. Week one for Rafa is loaded with possible landmines in Tursunov, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Janko Tipsarevic. But I think if Nadal can get into week two, he’ll take care of business en route to the final four.

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