After watching David Nalbandian defeat Roger Federer for the second consecutive Masters Series tournament, a question immediately popped into my head: What is bigger, the improvement in Nalbandian's tennis, or his mental edge over Federer?

If you asked 100 tennis fans this question, I think you’d hear arguments for both sides. Concerning Nalbandian’s play on the court, he’s shown a number of signs lately that suggest that he could be back to contending for Grand Slam titles. His unforced error count is way down. His backhand is as precise and potent as ever, packing tremendous pop with incredible deception.

Most importantly, David has not wilted under the pressure of his opponents. Victories against Federer (twice), Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are proof enough of this important attribute.

'Nalbandian might be the biggest wild card on tour heading into next year, and I’m sure no one – Federer included – will want to see him in their quarter of the draw at the Australian Open'


Of course, this “new Nalbandian” has only been on display at the Madrid and Paris Masters tournaments, and not for the duration of 2007. He could very well be on a hot streak, or simply have caught lightning in a bottle. We’ve seen countless instances of this on tour before; Guillermo Canas, who did the same back-to-back Masters beating of Federer back in the spring, is a good example. It’s possible that Nalbandian could join that list, based on his up-and-down career numbers.

We won’t know the answer to this for a while, especially because Nalbandian’s year is over after Bercy. The ATP announced that even with a win this week, the Argentinian can’t get the amount of points needed to qualify for Shanghai. But even though many fans would prefer to see Nalbandian at the Tennis Masters Cup as opposed to Fernando Gonzalez (who some say peaked long ago) or the currently unknown eighth seed (who some say isn’t playing as well as David), the fact that this is the end of the line leaves much for fans to consider heading into 2008. Nalbandian might be the biggest wild card on tour heading into next year, and I’m sure no one – Federer included – will want to see him in their quarter of the draw at the Australian Open.

My answer to the original question would tend to be skewed towards the latter, that Nalbandian has a huge edge in the mental battle between the two at the moment. When Roger dropped the first set today, I didn’t think much of his chances in the match, even though against nearly anyone else on tour, I would still be very confident in Federer’s ability to comeback and win.

And when Nalbandian broke Federer to serve for the match at 6-4, 5-4, I didn’t think for a second that Roger could come and break back. I stopped and thought about that, and I realised that’s probably one of the few times I’ve ever said that about Federer before. But it’s a direct result of how good Nalbandian is playing, and also how much of a struggle Roger is having against him – on and off the court.

Federer doesn’t put on the puzzled, frustrated visage often, but he’s doing so when he plays Nalbandian. It's happened in Paris and in Madrid, for one reason of another. But let’s keep things in perspective here - both of these tournaments were not “critical” for Federer, as he had essentially sewn up the year-end No.1 after the US Open.

They also aren’t Grand Slams, which is where Federer prides himself on performing at his best, all the time. And, after playing in Basel last week (which he won), Paris makes three consecutive weeks for a player who rarely plays consecutive weeks to begin with. So, while the two straight losses to Nalbandian may be troubling to Roger, I don’t think they are of large concern in the grand scheme of things – unless they meet each other early in Melbourne.

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