Home > Tennis > Andy Murray shouldn't be in a hurry to break into the top five
by Iestyn Stevens on 08 July 2008
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After his run to the quarter-finals at Wimbledon this year, Andy Murray has regained his place in the world’s top 10 on the ATP Tour, moving up two places to ninth.
At 21, it’s time Murray really kicked on and made it into the top five by the end of this season, but he will have to be imperious to achieve that aim. He has a good all-round game that can make him a formidable opponent on any surface and he’s certainly better than some of the players above him.
However, he hasn’t won a hard court tournament late in the season. His previous hard court wins have come in February, although he did lose in the final in Metz to Tommy Robredo in October last year despite taking the opening set to love – before that victory Robredo had never won a hard court tournament.
Another 1,200 points will see him into the top five but, like I say, it won’t be easy for him this year. Russian Nikolay Davydenko currently occupies that position and he tends to play more tournaments than anyone else on the tour when fit, currently 28 this season – 10 more than Federer who has played the least amount in the top 20. However, Davydenko still has the investigation into match-fixing hanging above his head and that could continue to disrupt him over the rest of the season as it has already this year.
James Blake, ranked No.8, reached three finals on the US Open Series last year, losing to Radek Stepanek in Los Angeles and Roger Federer in Cincinnati, but he defeated fellow American Mardy Fish in the final at New Haven just days before the US Open, where he went out in five sets in the fourth round to Tommy Haas. He will be looking to do even better this year to at least maintain his ranking.
World No.7 David Nalbandian struggled on the hard courts in the US last year but did win the Madrid and Paris Masters tournaments defeating Federer and Rafael Nadal in the respective finals. If he continues to struggle in the US, he could find his ranking slip - and Murray could take advantage.
The biggest threat to Murray reaching the top five comes in the form of Andy Roddick whose huge serve and big-hitting forehand is suited to the courts in the US. Roddick, who is 900 points behind Davydenko in sixth place, has reached the final of the Canada and Cincinnati Masters three times in his career, winning both twice. After a disappointing US Open Series last year, he should improve his ranking this year if he reaches the semi-finals of the majority of the tournaments he enters.
Murray only reached the third round at the US Open last year, while he was out even earlier at the Canada and Cincinnati Masters events, but came back to reach the third round at the Madrid Masters and quarter-finals of the Paris Masters. If he can get up to speed on the hard courts quickly he has a real chance of going into the US Open with some momentum to go deep into the tournament and reaching the fringes of the top five.
The top three players in the world can’t drop out of the top five during the rest of this season, while current No.4 David Ferrer has his work cut out to maintain his ranking, having reached the semi-final of the US Open last year and the final of the Tennis Masters Cup in Shanghai where he lost to Roger Federer.
He’ll need big performances in the four remaining Masters events and the US Open. He reached the final of five Masters Series events last year, but he has reached just one quarter-final this year and, with very few clay court tournaments left to play to his strengths, he too could slip down the rankings.
This season might prove too difficult for Murray to break into the top five, but he can definitely do it if he continues to improve his fitness and ability to become an even better all-rounder. He’s only 21 so time is on his side, but I think next year is the earliest we can realistically expect him to realise his top-five dream.
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