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Time is ripe for Rafael Nadal and Co to shatter Roger Federer's fragile psyche

The Swiss master has had a poor year by his high standards and, after crashing out of the Rogers Cup this week, this author thinks his title as the world's No.1 is there for the taking.

by Praveen Sripada on 25 July 2008

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Roger Federer has lost to Andy Murray, Mardy Fish, Andy Roddick and Gilles Simon this year other than conceding defeats to Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. What has to be observed is the losses that he conceded to Fish, Roddick and Simon when, on any other day, he would have defeated them convincingly.

The latest of those defeats came from 22nd-ranked Frenchman Simon who is coming off a tournament win at Indianapolis. It could be said that he is hitting the right note in his career. Federer, after practicing for just four days after his excruciating Wimbledon final, played the Frenchman who defeated Tommy Haas, Sam Querrey and Dmitry Tursunov en route to his title.

Federer was in cruise control in the first set but a lack of concentration allowed Simon to clinch the second set 7-5. Both players traded breaks in the third and a flurry of forehand errors from Federer when he was serving to stay in the match at 4-5 handed the match on a platter to Simon, marking one of the most remarkable victories of his career.

Almost every player on the men's circuit failed to hold their serve and nerve against Federer and they subsequently lost the first set and the match. But, now that the invincibility factor surrounding Federer is gone, it's time for other players to penetrate into Federer's fragile psyche and deliver him a few more blows.

Nadal has done it in the French Open final. He repeated the act in the Wimbledon final. Should the pair meet in any of the finals on the hard courts (the US Open would be the perfect stage) Nadal will not hesitate one bit to utilise all the psychological advantage that he has gained over Federer this year.

Federer has a truckload of points to defend in the second half of the season and Nadal has to reach the semi-finals of each tournament to give Federer a run for his No.1 ranking. Nadal simply has to hope his knees hold up to displace the king from his throne, even if it's only for a brief period of time. Of course, there is always a floater called Djokovic who could throw a spanner in the works. Which half of the draw he ends up in will be the talking point of every tournament.

Federer is becoming mortal with these losses. His second-round loss to Simon at the Rogers Cup is a clear sign of choking at crucial moments for the first time in his career. If Nadal or Djokovic have any ambitions of getting the No.1 spot this year, then they have to go deep into every tournament, which will automatically put pressure on Federer to deliver the goods.

Is the teen Federer who yelled, argued and had broken rackets going to return when he starts to get pressurised? It's worth watching out for. If that happens, then the mighty cool Federer is scripting his own downfall.

If there is anyone who wants to know the turmoil that is going in Roger's head at the moment, his response to one question put to him after the defeat to Simon would have summed it up. He was asked: ''To some extent, do you agree with Justine Henin’s decision to retire at the peak of her career?''

Federer answered: ''Do I agree with that? Not today. Ask me another day. Please don’t kill me with questions like this.''

Comments (3)

by Arif Arif on July 25, 2008

After Wimbledon final, everyone is talking about Nadal chasing number 1 position. For me, even if Nadal would successfully gain number 1 position this year,he won't stay there for long. Roger is very consistent player, even more consistent then Nadal. Roger has having bad season because of standards he has created in past four years. I really think that if Nadal get number 1 position this year, he wont be staying there for so long and I beleive Roger Federer will bounce back either from this year US open or from next year and regain his postion. This was really awefull question ask from Federer regarding Justin retirement, it seems people wanted him to get Retired. People don't realizes that without Roger Federer Men tennis will be like what Women tennis now is facing after Henin. I think Henin decision was wrong, because tennis Needs her and want to see player like her for a long time and same is case with Roger, we don't see players like Roger Federer that often So as a tennis Fan I wanted to see Roger for as long as he can play.

by Kaizenmom on July 26, 2008

I agree that tennis needs players like Federer and Henin. It would've been great if Henin hadn't retired just yet, simply because many young players need a positive role model, not just in terms of technique but also in mental attitude. I'm a die-hard Rafa fan, but I admire Fed greatly too, and I would think it a sad loss if he bows out now. I don't believe Fed is ready to go anyway.

by david m on July 28, 2008

Since my first comment to this article I have watched Nadal's first set against Gasquet at the Rogers cup last Friday. The latter said he played the set of his life, and only this way he was able to edge out in the first set in a 26 point tiebreaker. Gasquet may not have shown the consistency to reach the potential of his amazing talent, but in that first set on Friday showed just how good Nadal is against a Gasquet at the top of his game. Nadal's victory of a very-in-form and unusually consistent Murray again showed that Nadal is playing at a level above this other very talented (but not always consistent) player. These two matches shocked me. I knew that Nadal had made many improvements in his game, and not only his serve, to play better on hardcourt... but I was still surprised to see just how good he has become, in this, the first week back on hardcourt. Various commentators have mentioned that Federer's only chance to hang on or regain his number one ranking in a strong way in the next year lies in his willingness to adapt his game big time. Something they feel he has not shown to be ready to do: he has not changed much of his game in the last couple of years. He didn't need to, but now he does. His confidence needs to come back. And he needs to find again a deep hunger... the hunger to want to win every single match he plays. As for Djokovic, he was raised to be very arrogant and it is kind of grating. That aside, he is surely going to improve, and most likely become more consistent. Just how much and how soon will determine when he will reach number 2, and when number 1. Before the grass court season started I expected him to perhaps become number 1 by the end of the year... now I expect him to be battling for number 2 with Federer throughout the fall. It is fairly likely that from mid-August (after the 2007 Canada and Cinci points drop off) Nadal will be number one, and will remain at number one most weeks of the fall - he just has so many fewer points to defend than Roger and Novak, and he is already playing better hardcourt tennis than expected. Roger's consistency is probably not going to come back really strong and really fast... and he does have many, many points to defend. Even if Roger defends almost all of them (winning the US Open for one), and that is a big if, Nadal could remain in front because he has many points he could improve on. 2009, on the other hand, is really too early to call. It may be that there will be a back and forth at the number one spot between two or three of these players. Again, a lot will depend on how consistent Novak will become over the next 3, 6, 9 months... Generally I would expect Nadal to remain about as consistent as he has always been... with the difference of perhaps losing fewer HC matches this fall as compared to 2006 and 2007. If Nadal also can duplicate his HC results from the first 3 months of the year he will be a strong contender for keeping or being near the number one ATP ranking.